Forward Guidance Energy & Trade Wars Are Rewriting the World Order | Helen Thompson
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Sep 17, 2025 
Helen Thompson, a Political Economy Professor at Cambridge, dives into the reshaping of global power dynamics. She analyzes how Trump’s trade policies and China’s dominance in rare earths impact the geopolitical landscape. The conversation also explores the U.S. shale boom and the significance of Western Hemisphere energy resources. Thompson highlights NATO’s fiscal challenges and discusses the dollar's resilience against the backdrop of rising public debt and evolving global trade relationships.
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Trump Stresses Geopolitical Frameworks
- Trump's return forces analysts to re-test geopolitical frameworks amid energy, debt, and China's rise.
- The conjunction of these structural changes plus Trump's personality makes the present geopolitical world unusually complex.
China Makes Historical Parallels Incomplete
- Historical parallels (like the 1970s) exist but China makes today's energy and geopolitical landscape fundamentally different.
- China's scale as the world's largest oil importer and coal consumer reshapes global dynamics in ways prior eras did not.
Plan For Enduring China Trade Frictions
- Don't assume trade friction with China will disappear under different administrations.
- Expect industrial strategy and tariffs to persist as tools to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity.
