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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Volatility Markets Are Complacent | Kris Sidial on Tariff Risk to Stocks, Dispersion Trade, and Margin Risk
Mar 19, 2025
Kris Sidial, co-CIO of The Ambrus Group, shares his bearish outlook on the U.S. stock market. He argues that volatility markets are underpricing risks related to economic policies. The conversation navigates various trading strategies, including dispersion trading and volatility selling in ETFs. Sidial emphasizes the importance of recognizing margin risk, particularly in market downturns. He also discusses the need for adaptability in investment strategies amid potential economic shifts, including tariff impacts.
54:10
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Quick takeaways
- Kris Sidial highlights a concerning complacency in volatility markets, where investors are not adequately hedging against potential downturns in the stock market.
- The podcast underscores the significant shift towards tactical investing strategies, as passive approaches may struggle amidst current macroeconomic changes and increasing volatility.
Deep dives
Current Market Sentiment and Volatility Outlook
The current sentiment in the market indicates a degree of panic as the S&P has experienced a significant drop from all-time highs. However, there seems to be an interesting discrepancy in the volatility markets, where investors are not preparing for a sharp downturn. Instead, many are engaging in short-term call buying, which suggests an expectation of a market rebound rather than a severe sell-off. Overall, there is a growing sense that the overall structure of market policies is changing, impacting how equities are expected to perform over the next 12 to 18 months.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode