The Missing Middle with Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux How Housing Prices Shape Families
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Dec 3, 2025 Housing affordability is closely tied to declining fertility rates, with a University of Toronto study revealing that over half of this decline is due to a shortage of affordable family-sized homes. Delayed household formation and smaller living spaces exacerbate this issue, particularly in high-cost regions like Ontario and B.C. The discussion critiques common misconceptions about fertility causes and highlights the structural barriers preventing cities from building larger homes. Solutions involve significant zoning and regulatory reforms to better meet family housing needs.
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Housing Is A Major Driver Of Fertility Decline
- A U of T study found housing affordability explained 51% of the US fertility decline from 1990–2020, amounting to 13 million fewer births.
- Family-sized homes mattered twice as much as other types for supporting higher fertility rates.
Size And Timing Both Reduce Birth Rates
- Lack of affordable homes delays household formation and reduces the likelihood of second or later children.
- Smaller living spaces and bill pressures make families choose fewer children.
Provincial Cost Differences Affect Births
- Ontario and British Columbia saw larger fertility declines, likely tied to worse housing affordability.
- Regional housing costs correlate with bigger drops in births across provinces.