RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights
Nov 21, 2025
The hosts dive into the market's sharp downturn and explain the implications of an outside reversal. Discussions revolve around oversold signals in tech and Bitcoin, with predictions for future performance. There's debate on the Fed's policy risks amid rising unemployment and potential tariff rollbacks as economic levers for the administration. AI's impact on utility costs is examined, along with insights into market behaviors and the ongoing dynamics of banking liquidity. The panel wraps up with forecasts for the coming week.
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Episode notes
Outside Reversal Doesn’t Guarantee Prolonged Decline
- An outside reversal engulfing the prior day signals fear but hasn’t historically led to sustained declines for the S&P over 3–12 months.
- Jeff DeGraff notes the S&P isn’t externally oversold yet while NDX, Bitcoin, and IPO/SPAC indices are showing true oversold conditions.
Speculative Names Are The First To Show Oversold Stress
- Speculative segments (NDX fringe names, SPACs, IPOs, Bitcoin) reached external oversold readings only after the recent selloff.
- That oversold state may invite short-term rallies but also signals vulnerability without trend reversals.
Labor Weakness Raises Fed Cut Risk
- Labor market softening (rising unemployment, more WARN notices) increases the odds unemployment heads higher from September.
- That distribution of risks raises the probability policy will need to ease more than the market currently expects.