Special Episode: U.S. Intervention in Venezuela and What It Means for Canada

Jan 9, 2026

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela is scrutinized for its geopolitical stakes and implications for Canada's oil sector. The hosts discuss potential motivations behind the seizure of Maduro, involving drug trafficking and countering foreign influence. They explore how easing sanctions could impact Canadian oil exports as Venezuelan heavy oil vies for market share. The conversation pivots to Canada's need for diversification and infrastructure improvements, emphasizing the importance of resilience in a complex geopolitical landscape.

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INSIGHT

U.S. Mercantilism Reasserted

The U.S. action in Venezuela reflects a revived Monroe Doctrine-style mercantilism to control Western Hemisphere resources.
Peter Tertzakian argues the goal is control of trade and resources, not full political annexation or governance.

INSIGHT

State Capitalism Meets Energy Strategy

The U.S. move aims to curb influence from China and Russia and regain strategic assets like oil.
Peter frames this as state capitalism where the government aligns with multinationals to secure resource access.

ADVICE

Accelerate Export Infrastructure

Canada should accelerate building export infrastructure to diversify trade and reduce U.S. dependency.
Jackie Forrest urges expanding export markets and economic resilience to protect sovereignty.

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This special episode analyzes the United States’ intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, and explores its broader implications for Canada and the Canadian oil sector.

Peter and Jackie open with a discussion of the geopolitical backdrop and the range of narratives circulating about the U.S. motivations for seizing and arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, including efforts to curb drug trafficking and illegal migration, and to counter the growing influence of China, Russia, and terrorist groups in the country. They also reference the U.S. National Security Strategy released in November 2025, which calls for a Western Hemisphere free from hostile foreign control and signals renewed enforcement of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine is a foundational principle of U.S. foreign policy, first announced in 1823, that set out the United States' view of the Western Hemisphere. General principles at the time held that European powers should no longer interfere in the Americas and that the Western Hemisphere was now the U.S. sphere of influence.

Peter and Jackie then turn to the oil market implications for Canadian oil. If sanctions on Venezuela were eased, increased Venezuelan heavy oil exports to the U.S. could intensify competition for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 10% of Canada’s crude oil exports. The exports to Canada’s largest market, the U.S. Midwest, which makes up 70% of all exports, are more insulated.

The discussion concludes with an assessment of potential Venezuelan production scenarios, including the possibility of declining output, a pattern that has frequently followed similar government changes in the past. They conclude that, in any scenario, a clear takeaway for Canada is that building additional West Coast pipelines is critical. Diversifying export markets, strengthening economic resilience, and improving national sovereignty and autonomy are imperatives for Canada.

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