Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 339: Jay Pelosky on Tech Bubble (or Not), China vs. US, Clean Energy Plays
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Dec 17, 2025 In this insightful conversation, Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked strategist at Morgan Stanley, breaks down his 'Tripolar World' concept, highlighting regional integration across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. He explores the current global growth cycle driven by AI, defense, and climate initiatives. Jay contrasts the AI strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the shift to power costs as the competitive edge. He also discusses the renewables boom in Brazil and Spain, and why today’s market differs significantly from the 2000 dot-com bubble.
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Tripolar World Shapes Global Order
- The Tripolar World thesis argues regional integration in Asia, Europe and the Americas will order the global economy going forward.
- Jay Pelosky uses this framework to force balanced attention to non-US regions in investing.
Write Weekly To Stay Ahead
- Write and publish regularly to stay on the front edge of information and thinking.
- Pelosky recommends weekly writing plus a monthly deep dive to maintain discipline and insight.
AI, Defense And Climate Drive Long Growth
- Pelosky sees a global long growth cycle driven by regional spending on AI, defense and climate.
- He argues public-private industrial policy will be essential to execute these large projects.