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Making Sense

Does the June jobs report indicate a soft landing?

Jul 8, 2024
Join Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, as they dissect the June jobs report. Topics include implications for rate cuts, consumer health, corporate balance sheets, and predictions on Fed actions and CPI reports.
08:03

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Quick takeaways

  • The June job report indicates a soft landing scenario with balanced sectoral job gains.
  • Potential risks may lead to a slight increase in unemployment rate impacting future Fed decisions.

Deep dives

US Employment Report Overview

The June US employment report highlighted a modest increase in job numbers, close to expectations at 206,000, with a trend indicating moderation due to downward revisions in previous months. Notable details included a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent over three consecutive months. Average hourly earnings remained in line with a moderating trend, showing consistency with a relatively modest GDP growth forecast.

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