Odd Lots This Is What Maduro's Arrest Means for the Oil Market
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Jan 7, 2026 
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group and historian focused on geopolitics and energy, discusses the intricate dynamics surrounding Venezuela's oil industry following Maduro's arrest. He delves into the historical context of Venezuela's oil boom and decline due to nationalization and sanctions. Brew outlines the barriers to restarting production, the implications for regional politics involving China and Iran, and the complexities behind U.S. strategies in Latin America. He also emphasizes that current oil market prices are influenced more by OPEC+ than Venezuela itself.
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How Greg Found Out About The Raid
- Gregory Brew learned of Maduro's capture via social media while making coffee and watching early-morning tweets.
- He noted these events often occur on weekends to create a market-time buffer.
Huge Oil In Ground, Not Necessarily Recoverable
- Venezuela likely contains massive technically recoverable oil, possibly up to a trillion barrels in places like the Orinoco Basin.
- Proven, economically recoverable reserves are far lower today due to price, risk, and infrastructure decay.
Production Fell From Policy, Mismanagement, Sanctions
- Venezuela's production history is a long W-shaped arc driven by competition, nationalization, and mismanagement.
- Chavez and Maduro's policies plus sanctions and price shocks turned PDVSA from a profit center into a piggy bank and caused infrastructure collapse.