ETF analysts Todd Sohn, Aniket Ullal, and Lara Crigger discuss key ETFs for 2024. They cover Vanguard's potential surpassing of BlackRock, the growth of Bitcoin ETFs, and emerging markets like India. The episode also explores the benefits of mini IWV and DIA ETFs, the industrial sector as an investment, and currency hedging in international ETFs.
Investors are seeking ways to access emerging markets while reducing exposure to China, leading to a combination of EMX China ETFs, China-focused ETFs, and country-specific ETFs.
The entry of Vanguard into the active bond ETF market is expected to increase the market share of these funds, driven by their income potential and as an alternative to money market funds.
Options-based ETFs, despite underperforming in 2023, continue to attract income-focused investors and those transitioning from money market funds, indicating their longer-term staying power.
Deep dives
Unbundling of Emerging Markets Exposure
Investors are exploring ways to access emerging markets without being heavily weighted towards China. This trend may lead to a combination of EMX China ETFs and China-focused ETFs, or the use of more targeted country-specific ETFs. An example of a fund addressing this is KEM, offering dynamic calibration of China exposure. The trend is influenced by concerns over China's underperformance and its geopolitical tensions with the US.
Increased Flows in Active Bond ETFs
Active bond ETFs account for just 11% of the bond ETF market, but this trend is expected to change, especially with the entry of Vanguard, offering more cost-effective options. The appeal of active bond ETFs lies in their income potential and as an alternative to money market funds. The growth of this category may continue, albeit at a slower pace.
Continued Growth of Options-based ETFs
Despite underperforming in 2023, options-based ETFs experienced significant inflows. This suggests they may have longer-term staying power due to their appeal to income-focused investors and those transitioning from money market funds. The growth of these products may slow down, but the options-based strategy is likely to remain.
Momentum and Tech-driven Growth in Risk-on Themes
After a year of investors flocking to money market funds, a potential reversal may occur with money exiting these funds and flowing into high-performing sectors like tech and communication services. The appeal lies in chasing performance and positioning in sectors that have shown momentum and growth. While there may be volatility, these sectors could sustain their performance.
Contrarian ETF Ideas for 2024
Contrarian ETF ideas for 2024 include investing in Europe, healthcare, high-beta growth, and industrials. These sectors have seen limited interest and could offer new opportunities. Unbundling Europe, focusing on specific countries, and considering currency hedging are strategies for European investments. Healthcare and high-beta growth show potential for a rebound, while industrials can complement other sectors.
Strategas’ Todd Sohn and CFRA’s Aniket Ullal join in a roundtable discussion on several key ETFs and industry trends to watch in 2024. VettaFi’s Lara Crigger offers her ETF predictions for the upcoming year.
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