Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Excess Returns Pod: Robert Hagstrom & Chris Mayer -- With the Concentrated Momentum Driven Almost Unbeatable Major Indices, What Does It Really Take These Days to Outperform the Market

23 snips
Oct 17, 2025
In this engaging discussion, legendary investors Chris Mayer, known for his book *100 Baggers*, and Robert Hagstrom, author of *The Warren Buffett Way*, delve into the challenges of beating the market amidst mega-cap stock dominance. They debate the merits of concentrated vs. equal-weighted portfolios and share insights on effective position sizing. The duo also examines the implications of private equity and the evolution of tech leaders since 1999, urging a long-term perspective on investing and redefining success beyond mere index performance.
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INSIGHT

Cap-Weighting Drives Concentration

  • The S&P's top-heavy cap-weighting concentrates returns in a few mega-cap winners and skews benchmark performance.
  • Equal-weight indexes would reduce controversy because earnings-driven winners would still outperform many smaller names.
INSIGHT

Market Leadership Follows Economics

  • Economics drive market leadership: top mega-caps earned their weights through superior returns on capital and margins.
  • If the S&P reflected only the bottom 490 companies, the market's recent gains would be far smaller.
INSIGHT

Benchmark Choice Reflects Goals

  • Equal-weight vs. cap-weight outcomes converge over long periods but diverge during concentrated rallies.
  • Choice of benchmark should reflect investor objectives and the manager's investment style.
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