Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Robert Hagstrom & Chris Mayer -- With the Concentrated Momentum Driven Almost Unbeatable Major Indices, What Does It Really Take These Days to Outperform the Market | Excess Returns Pod

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Oct 17, 2025
In this engaging discussion, legendary investors Chris Mayer, known for his book *100 Baggers*, and Robert Hagstrom, author of *The Warren Buffett Way*, delve into the challenges of beating the market amidst mega-cap stock dominance. They debate the merits of concentrated vs. equal-weighted portfolios and share insights on effective position sizing. The duo also examines the implications of private equity and the evolution of tech leaders since 1999, urging a long-term perspective on investing and redefining success beyond mere index performance.
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INSIGHT

Cap-Weighting Drives Concentration

  • The S&P's top-heavy cap-weighting concentrates returns in a few mega-cap winners and skews benchmark performance.
  • Equal-weight indexes would reduce controversy because earnings-driven winners would still outperform many smaller names.
INSIGHT

Market Leadership Follows Economics

  • Economics drive market leadership: top mega-caps earned their weights through superior returns on capital and margins.
  • If the S&P reflected only the bottom 490 companies, the market's recent gains would be far smaller.
INSIGHT

Benchmark Choice Reflects Goals

  • Equal-weight vs. cap-weight outcomes converge over long periods but diverge during concentrated rallies.
  • Choice of benchmark should reflect investor objectives and the manager's investment style.
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