Private Equity's Promises and Problems

Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.

Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

https://excessreturnspod.com/

https://cultishcreative.com/ — everyting Matt Zeigler.

In a world that moves tick by tick and quarter by quarter, The 100-Year Thinkers zooms out to explore what it really means to invest with patience, discipline, and perspective. In this premiere episode, join Matt Zeigler, Bogumil Baranowski, Chris Mayer, and Robert Hagstrom as they discuss market concentration, the dominance of mega-cap stocks, and how investors can think in decades—not days.

Together, they explore the evolution of active management, the role of the S&P 500, the challenge of private equity, and how to build portfolios that last.

Topics covered

• Concentration and the rise of mega-cap dominance

• Equal-weight vs. market-cap-weighted indexes

• The role of the S&P 500 and how it shapes investor behavior

• Why the Magnificent Seven may not repeat past winners’ mistakes

• The differences between today’s tech leaders and the 1999 bubble

• The changing nature of private equity and illiquidity premiums

• How to define success as an investor beyond beating the index

• The importance of focusing on business economics over stock prices

• Lessons from Buffett, Bill Miller, and other long-term thinkers

Timestamps

00:00 Concentration and portfolio construction

04:00 Market-cap dominance and equal vs. cap weighting

10:30 Active management, benchmarks, and the S&P 500

17:00 Economic realities of the top 10 stocks

23:00 Government policy and market intervention

26:00 Comparing 2024 to 1999 and lessons from past cycles

32:00 Innovation, Russell 2000, and private company growth

40:00 Active management and how the S&P wins

41:45 The private equity boom and its challenges

49:00 Redefining performance and investor goals

55:00 The importance of focusing on business economics

57:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.