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At Any Rate
Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes
Feb 28, 2025
Explore the fascinating tug-of-war between US economic signals and tariff impacts on inflation and the dollar. The hosts discuss how moderating US rates and shifting business sentiment challenge the Federal Reserve's outlook. Delve into market yields and labor dynamics as they shape expectations for future rate cuts. Additionally, examine tariff implications on the Eurozone following Germany's elections, highlighting potential fiscal reforms and their effects on the EUR/USD exchange rate. It's a riveting look at global financial interplay!
18:15
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Quick takeaways
- Moderating U.S. economic data raises speculation about potential interest rate cuts, influencing both interest rates and forex markets significantly.
- Tariffs impact the U.S. dollar's valuation by providing a supportive floor, despite the contrast with improving Eurozone growth dynamics.
Deep dives
Moderation in U.S. Data and Its Impact on Markets
Recent trends indicate a moderation in U.S. economic data, which has significant implications for both interest rates and foreign exchange markets. Notably, term premiums for 10-year yields have fallen considerably, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment regarding the future economic landscape. Key indicators such as weak regional Fed surveys and declining consumer confidence have led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with markets now pricing in an increased likelihood of Fed easing. As the intersection of fiscal policies, tariffs, and economic data unfolds, the cautious approach from the markets reflects concerns about growth potential moving forward.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode