

Tiptoe Away From the Ground Zero of AI
Oct 20, 2025
This week, Eric Fry, editor of Fry's Investment Report, shares insights from his experience with legendary publisher Jim Grant. He discusses his top-down investment strategy, focusing on industry leaders who have stumbled but still show promise. Eric dives into his investment horizon, the merits of long-dated options, and offers smart position sizing advice. He breaks down AI investment into builders, enablers, appliers, and survivors, emphasizing the latter for potential gains, highlighting stocks like Savers Value Village and Fevertree Mixers as strong contenders.
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Top-Down Turnaround Focus
- Eric Fry uses a top-down approach: find big multi-year trends, then pick industry leaders that fell on hard times but retain strong underlying dynamics.
- He looks for catalysts so these leaders can outperform within a one-to-three year window.
Avoid Industries With Binary Outcomes
- Avoid banks and biotech because their boom-bust or binary regulatory dynamics make modeling and risk management unreliable.
- Put those industries in your "too hard" pile unless you have specific expertise.
Set A One-To-Three Year Horizon
- Aim to realize initial success within one to three years when you buy a stock; expect short-term volatility and don't panic at 20–30% drops.
- Use that horizon to judge buys and hold through interim setbacks if the thesis remains intact.