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Stansberry Investor Hour

Latest episodes

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Apr 1, 2025 • 1h 5min

Don't Underestimate the Power of 'Hidden Compounders'

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by John Barr. John is a managing director at Needham Funds, where he has served as co-portfolio manager of the Needham Growth Fund and portfolio manager of the Needham Aggressive Growth Fund for 15 years. John kicks things off by discussing his investment philosophy, what Needham Funds does, and the power of compounding. He says he tries to find companies that are hidden compounders that will eventually turn into quality compounders. This leads John to share the four criteria he looks for when trying to find hidden compounders. He names two such companies that fit the criteria, breaking down the thought process for Needham's investing in each one. (1:39) Next, John explains why he's such a fan of family-run businesses and names a power-conversion company he likes that's still being led by its founder. He then discusses what sets Needham apart from other funds, including its preference to hold on to quality companies for a long time – even through 50% drawdowns. And John details how he decides when to actually sell a company, although he notes that he made a mistake with Dick's Sporting Goods. (21:31) Finally, John reminds investors to know and play to their strengths. And he urges them to ignore all the noise in the news, as being successful in the markets requires a fair amount of optimism about the future. Talking broadly, John says that Needham has been investing in infrastructure for the past decade-plus and more recently has been looking at defense companies. He names military shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls Industries as a solid pick today. Plus, he names a couple skilled-labor-school stocks he likes, as skilled labor is set to remain in high demand. (40:58)
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Mar 24, 2025 • 1h 8min

The Recent Downturn Is Actually a Growth Reset

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Matt Weinschenk back to the show. Matt is the director of research at Stansberry Research. He's also the editor of the free weekly newsletter This Week on Wall Street and a member of the investment committee for Stansberry Portfolio Solutions. Matt kicks things off by describing what he does at Stansberry Research and what type of investor he is. Because his career began right before the great financial crisis, he says he tends to lean more conservative. This leads to a discussion about controlling risk, preparing for market surprises, and needing to "get slapped in the face a few times" to understand the stakes. After, Matt gives his nuanced take on crypto – from its use for diversification to the "scam" meme coins. (1:39) Next, Matt weighs in on artificial intelligence ("AI") and the huge amounts of capital flowing into the sector. He explains that there are safer ways to invest in AI than buying the headline-making names, using Nvidia versus Cisco Systems as an example. And he points out that even if AI is currently experiencing a bubble, the technology will both benefit the economy and make companies more productive in the long term. (21:40) Finally, Matt goes in depth on the current macroeconomic environment and his outlook for the future. This includes President Donald Trump's tariffs disrupting specific industries, what the VIX and high-yield credit spread are signaling, fears of a recession, and the bond market expecting a growth slowdown. (37:46)
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Mar 17, 2025 • 58min

The Private-Equity Reckoning Is Here

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Dan Rasmussen back to the show. Dan is the founder and portfolio manager of asset-management firm Verdad Advisers, as well as a bestselling author. His most recent book, The Humble Investor, came out just last month.  Dan kicks off the show by explaining what motivated him to write The Humble Investor. This leads to a discussion about why savvy investors should be skeptical of forecasts and why they should always consider whether other investors are looking at the same data and reaching the same conclusions as them. One area where this is a big problem is AI. It's capital intensive with very little return thus far, yet investors are blindly buying into AI stocks on lofty expectations. Dan points out that the "Magnificent Seven" are riskier than most folks realize, and this overvaluing of U.S. stocks has made foreign investors begin to look at other countries' markets for opportunities. (1:47) Next, Dan talks about investors mistakenly being underweight gold for years, whether it's possible to predict a bubble, the pattern of credit crises, and the recent worrying signal of money drying up in private equity. He notes that this tendency for investors to take on more risk in private equity than elsewhere is a disaster waiting to happen. Dan then delves into which parts of the market he finds most and least attractive today. For example, he notes that changing corporate governance for Japanese stocks is an "obvious catalyst" for doubling your money, while short-term macroeconomic factors are keeping him away from U.S. Treasurys. (17:12) Finally, Dan discusses diversification versus "diworsification," the often-ignored problem with passive investing, and the "valuation drop-off" between S&P 500 Index stocks and foreign stocks. With the Magnificent Seven officially in a bear market, Dan declares that "the turning point seems to be upon us" for U.S. stock valuations to come down. And he concludes with a stark reminder about earnings growth for listeners. (38:11)
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Mar 10, 2025 • 1h 3min

If You Understand Market History, You Are Bound to Profit From It

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Jeffrey Hirsch to the show. Jeffrey is the editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac – a book that has been published annually since 1967 and that analyzes stock trends, patterns, and cycles. He is also the editor of the Almanac Investor newsletter, which releases monthly and provides strategic investment advice.  Jeffrey kicks off the show by describing how he got his start interpreting data and how he eventually ended up working on the Almanac. That leads to a discussion about what has changed in the Almanac over the decades versus what has stayed the same – in terms of both human behavior and content. Jeffrey also talks about President Donald Trump shaking things up, what has happened historically in postelection years, and where he believes the market could go from here. (1:39) Next, Jeffrey reviews the basics of risk control that all the best investors follow and which fundamentals his team looks at to evaluate stocks. He also explains what traders usually get wrong about the moving average convergence divergence ("MACD") indicator and the Santa Claus rally. Moving to the topic of seasonality, Jeffrey explores the flaws in the traditional "sell in May and go away" adage, what the "Christmas in July" phenomenon is, and how market patterns changed after 1949. (18:09) Finally, Jeffrey discusses what led his father, Yale Hirsch, to originally publish the Almanac and how a background in music can help investors to recognize historical cycles and patterns. He then finishes with his opinion on 5,700 being an important level for the S&P 500 Index and gives tips on how you can fight against confirmation bias. (35:05)
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Mar 3, 2025 • 1h 8min

China's Future Looks Shaky – From Tariffs to a Potential Debt Crisis

In this discussion, Charlene Chu, a top macrofinancial analyst specializing in Chinese debt at Autonomous Research, provides valuable insights. She evaluates whether China remains a smart investment and highlights the challenges India faces in becoming a manufacturing hub. Chu delves into the looming debt crisis in China and the impact of U.S. tariffs on trade. She also discusses the alarming prediction that China's population could drop by 60%-70% by 2100, raising questions about its economic future.
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Feb 24, 2025 • 1h 8min

Now Is a Great Time to Invest in Silver

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Benoit La Salle to the show. Benoit is the president and CEO of Aya Gold & Silver (AYA.TO). He has more than 25 years of experience developing and operating responsible mining companies in West Africa. Benoit kicks things off by describing Aya's first-mover advantage in Morocco, why the country is destined to become a top mining jurisdiction, and how mining in Saudi Arabia differs from Morocco. He also explains why he's so excited about silver today. While the metal is in high demand as an industrial asset (such as for making solar panels and AI chips), it's not yet fully appreciated as a financial asset. But Benoit believes a shift is inevitable – and already underway – which will cause silver's price to soar. (1:47) Next, Benoit delves into the specifics of Aya's mines in Morocco, including those that aren't yet in production. He shares that Aya is spinning off its Amizmiz Gold Project to a new gold-mining company called Mx2, of which Aya owns 42%. Mx2 is set to go public later this year. Benoit also covers all the advantages of Morocco's low cost of drilling and exploration, the other industry that's booming in Morocco, and why Morocco has such cheap energy. (16:49) Finally, Benoit explains how he first got involved in mining after an encounter with the president of Burkina Faso, why the upside potential in Aya's stock price is still fantastic, and how momentum in silver investing has temporarily slowed since President Donald Trump took office. Further, he breaks down Aya's balance sheet and makes his macroeconomic case for precious metals. (36:10)
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Feb 18, 2025 • 1h 4min

How to Spot Rare Quality Businesses Among All the Losers

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Pieter Slegers to the show. Pieter is the founder of Compounding Quality, an investment newsletter that boasts more than 440,000 subscribers.  Pieter kicks things off by sharing how he got his start in asset management, why he began investing in U.S. stocks, and the difference between value investing and quality investing. This leads to a discussion about Warren Buffett's impressive track record and one particular software company that Pieter likes today. He breaks down several criteria he uses when looking for investment opportunities – including founder-led businesses, long-tenured CEOs, and wide moats – and how exactly he narrows down his list. (1:40) Next, Pieter talks about the evolution of his successful X account that he began anonymously but eventually put his face on after it gained a lot of attention. As Pieter emphasizes, if you're taking investment advice from someone, that person should be invested alongside you and have skin in the game. For that reason, Pieter is looking to launch an investment fund later this year. Pieter then lists off a few companies he likes today and discusses the importance of investing in growing end markets. (20:30) Finally, Pieter gives his thoughts on the balancing act between paying high valuations for good companies versus missing an opportunity to own a great business. As Pieter details, it's all about an investor's individual risk tolerance and whichever strategy works best for them. Pieter also covers the flaws in discounted cash flow ("DCF") models, two companies that are overpriced today based on reverse DCF, and the three valuation methods he personally uses. (37:47)
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Feb 10, 2025 • 1h 3min

Inflation and Debt Are Looming Over the U.S. Economy

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Frank Trotter to the show. Frank is the president of Battle Bank, which is looking to revolutionize the digital-banking industry. Frank kicks off the show by sharing how he got his start in banking and how interest rates have changed over the decades due to various crises and bear markets. That leads to a discussion about the U.S.'s 10-year Treasury yield and why it has soared since the Federal Reserve cut rates. Frank also dives into EverBank, the direct-to-consumer online bank he co- founded in 1998 that amassed $28 billion in total assets. (1:40) Next, Frank explains what the current regulatory environment is like and how EverBank survived the dot-com bust. He then goes in depth on Battle Bank, which is focusing on the national direct-to-consumer branchless market. Frank covers Battle Bank's conservative strategy for lending money, whether environmentalism and politics have had any impact on lending to natural resource companies, and the specific advantages Battle Bank has over larger banks. (19:14) Finally, Frank talks about crypto acceptance at Battle Bank, "eCash" being ahead of its time in the 1990s, and the larger limitations of bitcoin that will impede it from becoming a reserve currency. He also gives his thoughts on Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency and its lofty goal of cutting $2 trillion in federal spending. And he closes the episode out by urging listeners to think about the future and ask themselves some tough questions. (37:25)
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Feb 3, 2025 • 1h 4min

The Boring Asset That Outperforms Most Stocks

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Hendrik Bessembinder to the show. Hendrik is a business professor at Arizona State University. With more than 40 years of teaching experience and 25 years of consulting experience, he joins the show to impart some of what he has discovered over his decades of work. Hendrik kicks things off by introducing himself and sharing how he got involved in teaching. After that, he talks about his breakthrough research studying the performance of stocks versus Treasury bills, why investing over a long time horizon is crucial, and the importance of finding a competitive advantage in the markets. Hendrik then compares stock picking with professional athletics, as both are rare skills that only small portions of the population excel at. (1:47) Next, Hendrik reveals that he's skeptical of any system that alleges it can make you wealthy, because the markets are competitive and constantly evolving. He says it all comes down to probabilities – and trying to gain an advantage that will nudge those probabilities in your favor. Hendrik also explains why he believes now is "the best trading environment ever" for retail investors in terms of cost and reliability. And he gives his thoughts on passive investing, the Magnificent Seven stocks, and diversification. (22:44) Finally, Hendrik discusses which assets he personally has in his portfolio, his concerns about inflation, the benefits of Treasury inflation-protected securities ("TIPS"), and the downfall of meme stocks. Plus, he responds to popular criticism about the value of a Master of Business Administration degree. (40:51)
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Jan 27, 2025 • 1h 1min

How to Make Money on Spinoffs and Insider Buying

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Jim Osman back to the show. Jim is the founder and chief vision officer of consulting group The Edge – which helps its clients and investors unlock hidden corporate value from "global special situations." Jim kicks off the show by detailing his new book that's coming out next month. It's targeted at individual investors, giving them more tools to succeed against Wall Street. Jim also discusses the importance of being yourself on social media, staying objective when it comes to investing, and how he finds special situations to profit from – mainly, spinoffs and insider buying. He explains how everyday investors can gain both an analytical edge and a behavioral edge over the markets. But as he warns, gaining such an edge involves doing your own hard work. (1:47) Next, Jim covers what's going on in the markets right now. He says there are a lot of spinoffs happening, but he has found that in the past year, the parent company has provided the best value. Further, he shares how he identifies the best spinoffs, how the future factors into his investment decisions, and why he believes value investing is dead. Jim then names two companies undergoing a spinoff that he finds attractive today, and one that he's keeping on his radar. (19:54) Finally, Jim discusses a recent Forbes piece he penned about Boeing's current problems. The company is hemorrhaging money and doesn't have a visionary leader to right the ship, but spinoffs could be the solution. Jim says Boeing is "really going to have to do something." After, he circles back to – and goes further in depth on – insider buying. And he shares his thoughts on initial public offerings and special purpose acquisition companies. (36:19)

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