Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires
30 snips
Dec 13, 2025 The discussion kicks off with a look at recent mixed data and a surprisingly positive outlook, fueled by a rebound in hiring. Notably, they dive into the effects of immigration on growth and the looming challenges posed by healthcare costs. Concerns about rising health insurance premiums and their potential impact on inflation for 2026 take center stage. The hosts engage in a spirited debate over the U.S. economy's potential to achieve 3% growth, weighing the tight labor supply against robust demand.
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Mixed Data, Labor Resilience
- Recent data are mixed but show a resilient US labor market with soft consumer spending in Q4.
- Joseph Lupton sees business caution fading, hiring returning, and fiscal support plus rate cuts underpinning growth into 2026.
Watch Q4 Data For Fed Action
- Expect a soft Q4 for US consumption and weak payrolls for Oct–Nov, increasing the chance of a Fed rate cut in January.
- Monitor upcoming monthly data to evaluate whether another easing becomes likely.
Immigration Legal Shifts Pose GDP Risk
- Immigration legal-status changes ahead could reduce measured labor supply and disrupt industries reliant on these workers.
- Joseph Lupton warns this could become a notable downside GDP risk if work authorizations vanish or removals occur.