Dave Kellogg, SaaS whisperer and EIR at Balderton Capital, predicts the future of AI, Silicon Valley, and venture capital
Jan 29, 2024
31:26
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Venture capitalist Dave Kellogg predicts the future of AI, Silicon Valley, and venture capital. Topics include last year's predictions, the post-ZIRP environment for venture capital, CIOs investing in automation, AI and copyright protection in 2024, and the concept of 'Retention is the new growth'. The episode also features a fun discussion about classic rock and hypothetical concerts.
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Quick takeaways
Algorithms focused on engagement over content selection, leading to clickbait and rage-baiting, highlighting the need to return to the days of direct subscriptions to specific publications.
The impact of the post-zero interest rate policy era on startups and the venture ecosystem, including valuations, employee power, company culture, and the shift towards prioritizing retention as the new growth strategy.
Deep dives
The Impact of Algorithms on Content Selection
Algorithms were introduced to improve content selection, but they turned out to be focused on engagement, leading to clickbait and rage-baiting. The speaker reminisces about the days of RSS feeds and expresses a desire to go back to that format, where users can directly subscribe to specific publications without relying on algorithms.
Introduction to Dave Kellogg and his Predictions
The podcast host introduces Dave Kellogg, a serial CMO and CEO, as well as a venture capitalist. Dave is known for his annual predictions and his ability to challenge conventional wisdom in the SaaS and growth metrics industry. The episode highlights the anticipation around Dave's predictions for 2023, which cover a wide range of topics and span over 6,000 words.
The Impact of Post-Zero Interest Rate Policy Era on Startups
One of Dave Kellogg's predictions focuses on the impact of the post-zero interest rate policy era on startups and the venture ecosystem. Dave believes that there is a pendulum effect in the funding landscape, which influences valuations, employee power, company culture, and prioritization of profit over growth. He also mentions his slight underestimation of PE acquisitions in the previous year.
Retention as The New Growth and Focus on Customer Success
Dave Kellogg's prediction about retention becoming the new growth highlights the increasing focus on customer success in 2023. Dave explains that customer success and expansion as a percent of total ARR have gained importance, representing a shift from a pure acquisition focus. He notes that while customer success is in the spotlight, some companies reacted by integrating customer success with other departments, while others invested more in building their customer success teams.
Dave Kellogg is an advisor, director, consultant, angel investor, and blogger focused on enterprise software startups. He’s the executive-in-residence (EIR) at Balderton Capital and the principal of his own eponymous consulting business.
He brings an uncommon perspective to startup challenges having 10 years’ experience at each of the CEO, CMO, and independent director levels across 10+ companies ranging in size from zero to over $1B in revenues.
Dave also authors the Kellblog which covers topics related to starting, leading, and scaling enterprise software startups including strategy, marketing, positioning, messaging, management, go-to-market, SaaS metrics, and venture capital financing.
Listen and learn
How Dave did with last year's predictions
What's ahead for the venture capital ecosystem in a post ZIRP environment
How CIOs are investing in automation
What to expect from the big LLM vendors
What's ahead for AI and copyright protection in 2024