Rising rates create risks for banks globally, universal banks have sound funding and liquidity
Nov 1, 2023
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Moody's analysts discuss managing risks from rising interest rates, funding and liquidity of universal banks, interest rate risk in banking book, characteristics of universal banks, market funding risks for universal banks, and the true liquidity position of banks.
Interest rate risk in banking books can reduce margins for banks and is influenced by regulations and risk capital.
Universal banks have sound funding and liquidity, reducing refinancing risk through diversity of funding sources and flexibility in debt management.
Deep dives
Managing Interest Rate Risk and its Impact on Banks
Interest rate risk in the banking book refers to the risk of a decline in a bank's earnings resulting from sharp movements in interest rates on its assets and liabilities. When interest rates rise, banks earn more on assets like loans and bonds, but they also pay more on liabilities like customer deposits. Mismatches in the timing of these interest rate changes can lead to reduced margins for banks. Housing loans and fixed rate mortgages can increase a bank's exposure to interest rate risk, while regulations and risk capital can affect the level of risk different banks face.
Lessons from US Bank Failures and European Regulations
In the US, the sharp increase in interest rates led to a liquidity problem for some banks. Banks experienced unrealized losses on investments in low-yielding bonds, which were funded by customer deposits. These losses created concerns among depositors, leading to withdrawals and bank failures. However, in Europe, regulations based on the Basel Committee Standard of 2016 have restricted the management of interest rate risk and the level of risk banks can take. This has reduced the potential for large mismatches and the risk of similar bank failures seen in the US.
Understanding Universal Banks' Funding and Liquidity
Universal banks are large banks with significant cross-border operations and diverse retail and commercial businesses. They rely on market funding, which carries refinancing risk. However, the diversity of their market funding sources, access to different securities and instruments, and flexibility in rolling over debt can reduce refinancing risk and funding cost spikes. The composition of market funding varies across regions, with different banks relying on cover bonds, repurchase agreements, or retail deposits. Liquidity for universal banks is generally abundant, but accounting numbers may overstate true liquidity due to factors like encumbered assets, overseas subsidiaries, and potentially lower quality or less immediately available securities.
Moody’s analysts discuss how lenders are managing the risks created by the end of the low-interest-rate era, and explore the favorable funding and liquidity characteristics of universal banks.