Jim Egan, housing strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the impact of rising mortgage rates on the housing market. Topics include declining affordability, the gap between mortgage rates, and the potential effects on demand and supply. The podcast also explores the influence of older generations on the housing market, disparities in affordability, and the need for more inventory.
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Quick takeaways
Rising mortgage rates have caused a decline in affordability and a deterioration in the confidence of home builders.
The housing market's resilience in terms of home prices may be reaching a limit, and any increase in supply could lead to a decline in prices.
Deep dives
Home builder sentiment falling due to rising rates
The sentiment of home builders is falling as rates continue to rise, which is having a negative impact on their confidence.
Impact of rising mortgage rates on affordability
Mortgage rates have been increasing, resulting in a deterioration of affordability. If rates stay at elevated levels, affordability will worsen, potentially leading to a significant decline in the housing market.
Resilience of the housing market and potential risks
The housing market has shown resilience in terms of home prices, but other aspects have been impacted by rising rates. Existing home sales have fallen, and housing starts have declined. There is concern that prices are reaching a ceiling, and any supply increase could lead to a decline in prices.
Long-term outlook for housing and potential impacts on monetary policy
If rates remain elevated, demand in the housing market is expected to remain tepid. Supply shortages will be crucial in keeping home prices stable. The impact of housing on the overall economy, such as job creation and consumer spending, will be influenced by the health of the housing market. The Federal Reserve may need to consider other areas of the economy if the housing market weakens.
Mortgage rates have surged over the last couple of years. But surprisingly to some, actual home prices in the US have been resilient. This has created a historic shock to affordability, with a typical monthly payment on a home purchase soaring. But how long can this go on? Particularly as rates continue to rise, with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage near 8% now, we speak with Morgan Stanley housing strategist, and past Odd Lots guest, Jim Egan, about the impact of this rate environment. He explains why we may be at the limit to how far house prices can rise, and why at this point, the key variable is whether more supply comes onto the market.