In this engaging discussion, John J. Sullivan, a seasoned diplomat and former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, shares insights from his memoir, *Midnight in Moscow*. He addresses the complexities of U.S.-Russia relations, emphasizing the importance of reciprocity in diplomatic representation. The conversation dives into the detrimental effects of Russian government corruption and the deep-seated animosity embedded in Russian society. Sullivan critiques the Biden Administration's strategies regarding Ukraine and articulates the daunting challenges of negotiating with a deeply entrenched Russia.
Effective diplomatic engagement with Russia requires a tough yet reciprocal approach, despite challenges from both Russian authorities and U.S. bureaucratic mindsets.
Putin's confidence in pursuing aggression against Ukraine was partly fueled by perceptions of U.S. weakness, especially following the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Deep dives
Navigating Diplomatic Challenges in Moscow
The complexities of managing the U.S. Embassy in Moscow during heightened tensions with Russia are explored. The speaker highlights his efforts to engage with the Russian intelligence services, specifically the FSB, and the reactions he faced from his own colleagues in Washington. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stance of reciprocity, suggesting that a tough but diplomatic approach was crucial, even as it was met with challenges from U.S. bureaucratic mindsets. The embassies faced difficulties not just from the local Russian authorities but also from a lack of understanding and support within the U.S. government.
Lessons from Intelligence Sharing and Strategic Dialogue
The discussion delves into the U.S. approach to intelligence sharing and its attempts to preempt Russian aggression ahead of the invasion of Ukraine. The speaker recounts the high-level meetings held to convey strong messages to the Russian government about the potential consequences of military action. Despite these efforts, the narrative reveals that there was an undercurrent of disbelief in the U.S. intelligence community about Putin’s intentions. The missed opportunities in prior diplomatic dialogues underscore the challenges of effective communication and strategy in international relations.
Implications of Afghanistan's Withdrawal on Russian Calculations
The impact of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russian perceptions of U.S. resolve is analyzed. The speaker argues that while Afghanistan was not the sole factor in Putin's decision-making, it contributed significantly to his confidence in proceeding with aggression against Ukraine. The Russian leadership displayed an opportunistic viewpoint, believing the West would falter in sticking with its allies. This perception led to a broader underestimation of the U.S. and NATO's commitment to Ukraine and the geopolitical implications of their actions.
The Importance of Understanding Russian Leadership Dynamics
Insights into the personality and mindset of Russian leadership, including Putin and his inner circle, illustrate the complexities of Russian governance. The speaker emphasizes the dangers of underestimating the resilience and determination of Russia's ruling class, which is characterized by an inclination to suppress dissent and maintain rigid control. This culture of unaccountability and secrecy not only affects military strategies but also has long-term implications for international stability. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for formulating effective U.S. policies and responses to Russian actions on the global stage.
Eric and Eliot welcome former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow John J. Sullivan. John was Deputy Secretary of Commerce in Bush 43, Deputy Secretary of State under Secretary Pompeo and served as Ambassador to Moscow for both Presidents Trump and Biden. They discuss his terrific account Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir From the Front Lies of Russia's War Against the West (New York: Little Brown and Co., 2024). They talk about the importance and difficulty of maintaining reciprocity in diplomatic representation with Russia the declassification of intelligence to deter Russia and DCI Bill Burns's role in the run up to Putin's invasion, the nature of Russian society and the national character and Russia's imperial hangover, Ambassador Sullivan's never sent valedictory telegram from Moscow and his final judgments about Russia and its war on Ukraine and the west, Putin' readiness to negotiate and his criticisms of the Biden Administration's approach to the war in Ukraine.
Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.
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