Shield of the Republic

In a gripping discussion, military strategies in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict take center stage, revealing the complexities of intelligence gathering and potential outcomes. The hosts delve into the implications of U.S. military intervention and the internal splits within Trump's coalition regarding foreign policy. Historical parallels and the cultural influences on decision-making in Israel versus the U.S. are explored, highlighting the challenges of national security leadership amidst shifting geopolitical tensions.

Douglas Lute, a seasoned military strategist and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, shares his insights on the upcoming NATO Summit. He discusses the challenges of NATO defense spending and the unpredictability introduced by Trump, recounting a tense moment from 2017. Lute emphasizes European nations' evolving strategies in defense and the importance of unity in the face of global threats. He also touches on Ukraine's role in NATO discussions and the risks of politicizing military actions, highlighting the intricate balance of power within the alliance.

Eliot and Eric offer up candidates for jackassery of the week before turning to a discussion of The Fate of the Day: The War for America, Fort Ticonderoga to Charleston, 1777-1780, (New York: Crown, 2025) the second volume of journalist/historian Rick Atkinson's monumental military history of the American revolution. They discuss Atkinson's background as a military journalist for the Washington Post who has written books about the Gulf War, the Iraq War and covered other late 20th and 21st Century conflicts before turning his attention to writing a trilogy on the US Army in Europe during the Second World War and now the American Revolution.  They discuss the depth of his research in both archives in the U.S. and UK as well as his process for researching and writing these massive volumes (each of which has taken about 5-6 years to produce) and the decline of grand narrative history in the academy (despite the public demand for it). They consider how his own experience as a journalist affected his sense of the contingency of warfare and the fact that there are always tensions between the architects of war in capitals and the officers and troops on the ground. He explains how King George III and his ministers never understood the American drive for independence and were gripped by strategic misconceptions about how to fight the war, including the notion that there was a silent majority of North Americans who supported the monarchy despite the fact that the loyalists had mostly fled the colonies to Canada, the Caribbean or London. They discuss the star crossed career of Benedict Arnold, Washington's generalship at the Battle of Brandywine in Pennsylvania, and, finally, how Americans should think about the meaning of the American revolution today as we celebrate the sesquicentennial of the war for independence over the next 8 years. The Fate of the Day: The War for America, Fort Ticonderoga to Charleston, 1777-1780: https://a.co/d/b6rFlQV The Liberation Trilogy Boxed Set: An Army at Dawn, The Day of Battle, The Guns at Last Light: https://a.co/d/dWBRojr Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

The discussion opens with a critique of political antics, including Medicaid cuts and Trump's bizarre social media behavior. They analyze a Ukrainian drone strike and its potential to reshape military tactics. The conversation shifts to the complexities of ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Syria, questioning Israel's objectives and the implications of a potential Trump-Iran deal. They also delve into the evolution of warfare, considering how AI and drones are revolutionizing military strategy, and the pressing need for awareness of these modern threats.

Eliot returns from overseas travel and brings back the jackassery of the week segment with him. He and Eric discuss the President's reliance on totally fraudulent evidence while ambushing the President of South Africa with a video alleging genocide against whites in his country, the President's bizarre commencement address at the "Army Acadmey," the disembowling of the national security council staff, and the continued sniping in the immediate office of the Secretary of Defense. Eliot also reports on the "strategic ghosts" haunting the chanceries of Europe and his visits to Edinburgh, London, Tallinn, Stockholm and Warsaw. They discuss the UK Strategic Defense Review and Britain's post-imperial overstretch, Eliot's attendance at the Lennert Meri Conference in Estonia and that country's memories of absorption into the Soviet Union and its fears of Russian revanchism, Russian gray zone activity in the Baltic Sea, Russian troop movements in the north and the threat to the Nordics, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's unpublished threatening letter to the Swedes in 2021, Sweden's "armed neutrality" during the Cold War, the nuclear question that hangs over Poland as well as Polish resentments at past betrayals, Russia's evolution into a perpetual warfare state, and European efforts to both rearm, assist Ukraine and influence Trump (and their chances of success on the latter front). Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Dennis Ross, a prominent figure in U.S. diplomacy and national security, shares his insights on adapting statecraft in today's multipolar world. He discusses the evolution of American foreign policy, contrasting various schools of thought, including America First and Realism. Ross emphasizes the importance of strategic communication and preparation in effective statecraft. He also examines presidential decision-making and its impact on international relations, using case studies like the Syrian conflict and the Ukraine crisis to illustrate complex geopolitical dynamics.

Edward Luce, a Financial Times Washington commentator and author of 'Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski', dives deep into the legacy of Zbigniew Brzezinski. He discusses why Brzezinski’s contributions to U.S. foreign policy are often overshadowed by Henry Kissinger, examining their contrasting styles and impacts. Luce highlights Brzezinski’s pivotal role in nuclear strategy and the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, as well as key diplomatic challenges he faced, including the fallout from the Iranian revolution. A fascinating exploration of power dynamics in foreign policy awaits!

Larry Summers, former President of Harvard and ex-Secretary of Treasury, brings his expertise to the discussion regarding inflation and its political ramifications, warning that the Biden Administration may not fully grasp its impact. He critiques Trump's economic policies and their negative effects on the stock market and dollar. Summers also reflects on anti-Semitism in academia and the declining role of universities as centers for truth, urging a more accountable and open discourse in education and society.

Edward Fishman, a Senior Research Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and an adjunct professor at Columbia, shares his expertise on economic warfare. He discusses how the U.S. has weaponized the dollar and technology, making sanctions an alternative to military action. Fishman highlights historical examples like the Non-Intercourse Act and explores the consequences of sanctions against Iran and Russia. He questions whether economic warfare can truly change authoritarian regimes' behavior and examines shifts in global economic power.

Eric and Eliot welcome former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, Assistant Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University's school of Foreign Service and author of The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, to discuss their article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, "Underestimating China: Why America Needs a New Strategy of Allied Scale to Offset Beijing's Enduring Advantages." They discuss China's massive advantages of scale in the strategic competition with the United States and the metrics that can be used to measure it including manufacturing capacity, not only in traditional industries but also in areas like biotechnology and aviation where the U.S. used to have the lead. They note how this translates into military production of ships, ballistic missiles, and drones. While acknowledging ongoing Chinese demographic, economic and environmental problems and continuing U.S. advantages they call for right-setting U.S. understanding of China rather than swinging from defeatism to triumphalism and back again. They examine the prospects for a U.S. led alliance to offset China's scale advantages but argue that it will require a new kind of alliance management by Washington policymakers that they call "capacity-centric statecraft." They also touch on the prospects of conflict over Taiwan in the next 5 years and whether it will take the form of a cross channel invasion or a blockade.