Renowned Russia expert Dr. Fiona Hill discusses Putin's playbook and the implications of a Trump return as commander-in-chief. Topics include Putin's strategy in the conflict with Ukraine, Russia's desire for negotiation, and the psychological impact of treating the war as a victory. The chapter also explores the motives behind US isolationism and the Russian approach to grey warfare and information warfare techniques.
Putin seeks to recreate a powerful image of Russia and dominate Europe by emphasizing historical tensions and divisions.
Putin aims to symbolically defeat Ukraine and secure gains through psychological operations, while seeing Trump's potential return as an opportunity in his favor.
Deep dives
Putin's Historical Patterns of Division and Separation
Putin has been observed to return to historical patterns of division and separation from the West, especially the UK, Europe, and the United States. Despite hopes of bridging the ideological divide after the collapse of the Soviet system, Putin has emphasized historical tensions and divisions. The example of the Danalov Monastery as a location for a banquet in Moscow signifies the projection of deep and historic Russian culture. This suggests that Putin is recreating a powerful image of Russia and seeking dominance in Europe.
Putin's Expansionist Aims and the War in Ukraine
Putin presents the conflict in Ukraine as an existential battle against the West, aligning with centuries of historical conflict between Russia and its Western neighbors. He seeks to regain dominance and expand further into Ukraine, leading to a difficult and pivotal point for the region. European and US support is crucial for Ukraine to resist Russian aggression. If support wanes, it could allow Russia to continue its dominance, potentially leading to a path of regaining power and influence on a larger scale.
Perceptions and Gains in the War in Ukraine
Putin derives psychological and symbolic wins from the war in Ukraine, despite staggering losses for both sides. He downplays Russian casualties and emphasizes the debilitating losses faced by Ukraine. Through propaganda and misinformation, Putin presents himself as victorious, already defeating Ukraine psychologically. The longer the conflict continues, the more dangerous it becomes for him, considering casualties, economic distortions, and potential health concerns. However, Putin aims to symbolically defeat Ukraine, manipulate perceptions, and secure gains through psychological operations and information warfare.
Putin's Gamble on Trump's Success
Putin sees Trump's potential return to power as a significant opportunity in his favor. Given past experiences and a belief in Trump's desire to quickly resolve conflicts, Putin feels he can manipulate him and win on the political battlefield. Putin anticipates that Trump's presidency would switch the dynamic in Russia's favor rapidly and encourage peace negotiations on Putin's terms. Trump's unpredictable nature, personal focus, and his relationship with Putin make him an asset for Russia's objectives.
As the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, and United States support to arm Ukraine fades, One Decision's Sir Richard Dearlove and guest host Jane Ferguson talk to renowned Russia expert Dr. Fiona Hill about what's inside Russian President Vladimir Putin's playbook and how the conflict might ultimately end. Dr. Hill served as a top national security advisor to three American administrations - including famously as the leading White House official on Russia for President Donald Trump. She discusses what victory would look like for Putin, the implications of a Trump return as commander-in-chief.
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