GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution The Age of Empire Strikes Back: Stephen Kotkin on Trump, Wrestling, and the Use of American Power | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution
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Feb 14, 2025 
Joining the conversation is Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and expert on Soviet history. He dives into American power dynamics under Trump, exploring the impact of fiscal challenges like crippling debt and military readiness. Kotkin draws parallels with the decline of the British Empire while discussing geopolitical tensions, particularly with China over Taiwan. The dialogue also touches on the complexities of tariffs, political polarization, and the urgent need for effective governance amidst a shifting global landscape.
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America's Enduring Power
- America's unprecedented power comes from its large GDP, strong military, and soft power.
- This power has persisted for a long time, regardless of specific policies.
Ferguson's Law and US Decline
- Niall Ferguson's law suggests that great powers spending more on debt than defense decline.
- The US now spends more on debt service than defense, making it vulnerable.
Social Spending vs. Military Spending
- John Cochrane suggests that the US's main fiscal problem is social spending, not military spending.
- He believes the US has potential for revitalization through institutional reform and economic growth.