The podcast discusses the December jobs report and its implications for the labor market. They analyze the recent labor market indicators, labor supply, and productivity growth. The hosts express their excitement about a reveal, discuss the positive employment report for November, and speculate on a mysterious economic release. They also explore consumer credit growth, decline in retail trade jobs, labor force participation rate, and full employment. Overall, they provide insightful analysis and predictions for the economy.
The December jobs report indicates a resilient but moderating job market.
There has been a decrease in demand for credit, indicated by slower growth in consumer credit outstanding.
The non-participation rate for individuals aged 55 and older is high, indicating a significant number of older individuals not seeking employment.
Deep dives
Two Years of Sub-4% Unemployment
The unemployment rate in the US has been below 4% for two consecutive years.
Slowing Credit Growth
Consumer credit outstanding grew at a slower rate in October, indicating a decrease in demand for credit.
Retail Trade Decline
Retail trade experienced a decline of 38,400 jobs, largely due to a seasonal adjustment quirk.
55+ Non-Participation Rate
The non-participation rate for individuals aged 55 and older was at 59.3%, indicating a significant number of older individuals not seeking employment.
Productivity Growth and Potential
Recent productivity growth suggests a potential increase in the underlying growth rate of the economy.
Inside Economics discusses the December jobs report, which left Mark feeling “giddy”, Cris “cheerful”, Dante “happy”, and Marisa “great”. The team considers the jobs numbers in the context of other recent labor market indicators which show a resilient but moderating job market. And they end with an assessment of whether the recently boomy labor supply and strong productivity growth are sustainable.
Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.
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