Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Uncrowded house: European power during demographic change

Jun 6, 2025
Alberto Rizzi, an ECFR policy fellow based in Rome and author of 'Markets, Migrants, Microchips,' dives into the complex topic of Europe’s demographic transition. He explores the implications of a shrinking and aging population on geopolitical power. Rizzi discusses the contrasting experiences of European nations like Germany and Italy versus France and the UK. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to strengthen international ties, particularly with Africa and the Indo-Pacific, in light of shifting demographics and labor demands.
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INSIGHT

Europe's Shrinking Population Threat

  • Europe's population is shrinking and aging, reducing its economic and political influence globally.
  • This transition leads to a smaller workforce and higher fiscal burdens, threatening Europe's competitiveness.
INSIGHT

Demographic Winners and Losers

  • Germany, Italy, and Spain face sharp population declines, losing millions of residents by 2050.
  • Conversely, France and the UK enjoy growth supported by higher birth rates and migration.
ANECDOTE

Migration Impact in Eastern Europe

  • Central and Eastern European countries lost significant working-age populations to migration since the Cold War.
  • Remittances from migrants abroad help fuel economic growth in their home countries.
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