The a16z Show

AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift

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Dec 12, 2025
Benedict Evans, a technology analyst and former a16z partner, dives deep into how AI is shaping industries and whether it’s merely a platform shift or akin to the advent of electricity. He discusses current bottlenecks in computing, highlights the gap between awareness and everyday use, and scrutinizes the potential of AI giants versus new entrants. Evans emphasizes the importance of workflows in tech adoption and speculates on the emergence of specialized AI applications, exploring whether a defining product akin to the iPhone will materialize.
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Platform Shifts Follow Familiar Patterns

  • Platform shifts repeat patterns: winners, losers, bubbles, and new billion-dollar companies emerge.
  • Some industries are rewritten while others only gain a useful tool, so impact varies by sector.
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We Can't Predict AI's Physical Limits

  • We lack firm theoretical limits for current models, so forecasting their ultimate capabilities is speculative.
  • That uncertainty makes it hard to know if AI will be another platform or a structural change like electricity.
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Compute Uncertainty Drives Investment Risk

  • Compute needs are the core unknown driving investment cycles and potential overinvestment.
  • If models suddenly need far less compute, everyone with spare capacity faces the same glut.
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