Why predicting AI's path is hard

AI is reshaping the tech landscape, but a big question remains: is this just another platform shift, or something closer to electricity or computing in scale and impact? Some industries may be transformed. Others may barely feel it. Tech giants are racing to reorient their strategies, yet most people still struggle to find an everyday use case. That tension tells us something important about where we actually are.

In this episode, technology analyst and former a16z partner Benedict Evans joins General Partner Erik Torenberg to break down what is real, what is hype, and how much history can guide us. They explore bottlenecks in compute, the surprising products that still do not exist, and how companies like Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and OpenAI are positioning themselves.

Finally, they look ahead at what would need to happen for AI to one day be considered even more transformative than the internet.

Timestamps: 

0:00 – Introduction 
0:17 – Defining AI and Platform Shifts
1:50 – Patterns in Technology Adoption
6:04 – AI: Hype, Bubbles, and Uncertainty
13:25 – Winners, Losers, and Industry Impact
19:00 – AI Adoption: Use Cases and Bottlenecks
24:00 – Comparisons to Past Tech Waves
32:00 – The Role of Products and Workflows
40:00 – Consumer vs. Enterprise AI
46:00 – Competitive Landscape: Tech Giants & Startups
51:00 – Open Questions & The Future of AI

Resources:

Follow Benedict on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans/

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see http://a16z.com/disclosures.

Stay Updated:

Find a16z on X

Find a16z on LinkedIn

Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify

Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts

Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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