BMW PGA Championship picks and predictions

Sep 18, 2024

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Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the 2024 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

-Discussing top six on odds board

-4 matchups

-1 t10

-3 outrights

-Sleeper, First Round Pick

-Scoring prediction

-Best bet

The BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth is a highlight of the DP World Tour, with top players battling for PGA Tour cards. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matteo Manassero headline the field, with McIlroy entering as a favorite after a strong showing at the Irish Open.

Key Players and Predictions

Rory McIlroy (02:34)

Rory McIlroy is in great form after nearly winning the Irish Open. He has consistently finished in the top 10 at Wentworth, including a win in 2014. At +625, McIlroy is a strong pick to win, and his iron play makes him a top contender.

Tommy Fleetwood (04:52)

Tommy Fleetwood struggles to close at Wentworth. His inability to put together four solid rounds and poor putting form make him a risky pick this week. McIlroy over Fleetwood at -130 is a smart bet.

Shane Lowry (06:17)

Shane Lowry, a past champion, has shown inconsistency in his iron play. Despite finishing 12th at the Irish Open, he’s not in top form, making him a risky pick for an outright win.

Matteo Manassero (08:05)

Manassero, the 2013 BMW PGA Champion, is in excellent form with five top-10 finishes this season. At 40-1, he is a great value pick, especially as he fights for a PGA Tour card.

Billy Horschel (09:45)

Horschel’s form has been erratic, particularly with his putting. Despite winning at Wentworth in 2021, his recent struggles make him a long shot at 22-1.

Matchups and Bets

Rory McIlroy vs. Tommy Fleetwood: McIlroy at -130 is a solid bet based on current form and track record.
Matthew Pavan vs. Tom McKibben: Pavan, priced at even money, has the edge given McKibben’s struggles.
Romain Langasque vs. Jorge Campillo: Langasque at -110 is favored with his consistent form over Campillo.

Sleeper Pick

Sepp Straka to top 10 at +320 is a great sleeper pick. Straka finished 10th at Wentworth last year and has shown improvement in his iron and putting game recently.

Best Bet

Matteo Manassero to top 20 at +175 is the best bet of the tournament. With his recent form and past success at Wentworth, he is poised for a strong finish.

Conclusion

The BMW PGA Championship promises excitement, with McIlroy as the favorite. Dark horses like Manassero and Straka offer great value. Keep an eye on matchups like McIlroy over Fleetwood, and make sure to back Manassero for a top-20 finish.

Summary

Rory McIlroy at +625 is the favorite.
Tommy Fleetwood struggles to close, making him a risky pick.
Shane Lowry is inconsistent with his irons.
Matteo Manassero at 40-1 is a great value pick.
Billy Horschel has struggled recently.
Bet on McIlroy over Fleetwood at -130.
Romain Langasque is a solid bet over Campillo.
Sleeper: Sepp Straka to top 10 at +320.
Best bet: Matteo Manassero to top 20 at +175.
Winning score prediction: 17 under par.

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