Aiden Reiter, an expert in economic strategies, discusses the pressing issues in the US housing market. The conversation dives into the alarming rise in home prices and stagnant supply, reflecting on the affordability crisis faced by many Americans. Proposals from political figures like Vice President Harris and former President Trump are scrutinized for their feasibility. The talk also covers challenges posed by local zoning laws and the slow pace of new construction, while offering insights into the complexities of the Turkish equity market and yield curve dynamics.
The American housing market struggles with high prices due to insufficient supply, exacerbated by rising interest rates and stagnant construction rates.
Proposals from politicians to increase housing supply face challenges from complex local zoning laws, requiring federal initiatives to be strategically aligned with local regulations.
Deep dives
The Housing Market Crisis
The current state of the American housing market is characterized by a severe shortage of homes, leading to skyrocketing prices that have reached historical highs. Data indicates that despite rising prices, homebuilders have failed to increase supply, largely due to a prolonged dearth in home construction over the last several years. Compounding this issue, high interest rates have discouraged builders from initiating new projects, causing a significant gap between housing permits and actual starts. As a result, affordability has drastically decreased, with the Atlanta Fed reporting that housing costs are now more burdensome relative to median income than ever before.
Government Proposals and Local Zoning Challenges
Politicians, including Vice President Harris and former President Trump, have pledged to tackle the housing crisis by proposing the construction of millions of new homes. However, the success of such initiatives hinges critically on local zoning laws, which largely dictate what can be built and where. The federal government, while beginning to introduce incentives for local governments to adjust their zoning regulations, faces an uphill battle due to the complexity and variability of these laws across different regions. Therefore, any federal-level efforts aimed at increasing housing supply will likely need to be paired with targeted actions that address local zoning challenges.
Potential Solutions for Home Availability
Several strategies have been suggested to improve home availability, including providing tax incentives for new housing developments and rehabilitating older homes. The Low Income Housing Tax Credit has been one mechanism to encourage affordable housing development but has not kept pace with demand. Additionally, incentivizing the conversion of commercial real estate into residential units could help alleviate some housing shortages. However, these efforts may face difficulties both politically and structurally, as they must navigate complex local regulations and potential resistance from communities opposed to new developments.
By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve.