The Morning Brief

India-China: Cold Diplomacy, Hot Trade

May 1, 2025
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INSIGHT

India-China Trade Defies Diplomatic Frost

  • Despite diplomatic tensions, India-China trade remains robust, reaching $136.2 billion in 2023.
  • China supplies critical components for India's machinery, pharma, and mobile sectors, showing deep economic interdependence.
INSIGHT

Trade War Spurs Global Economic Shifts

  • High U.S.-China tariffs threaten global economies, potentially causing recession-level GDP contractions.
  • Other countries might benefit from this trade war by capturing diverted market shares from China.
INSIGHT

Supply Chains Reshape Amid Tariffs

  • Persistent tariffs drive firms to relocate production, benefiting countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico.
  • Regional supply blocks and domestic consumption focus will reshape global trade over the long term.
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