Oil and Venezuela: What's Next?

Jan 6, 2026

Guest

Daniel Sternoff

Luisa Palacios, former chairwoman of Citgo Petroleum, delves into Venezuela's oil supply recovery amid recent political upheaval. Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert, discusses the legitimacy of working with interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Daniel Sternoff analyzes market reactions to the crisis, noting why oil prices remained stable despite turmoil. Together, they explore potential buyers for Venezuelan oil, the implications of U.S. foreign policy, and the broader geopolitical ripples affecting energy markets globally.

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INSIGHT

Surgical Extraction, Long Transition

The U.S. operation to remove Maduro was presented as a narrow law-enforcement extraction, not a broad invasion.
Luisa Palacios views this as the start of a long political transition with many unknowns ahead.

INSIGHT

Oil Emphasized, But Not Primary Motive

President Trump emphasized oil access publicly, but Luisa Palacios doubts oil was the main driver.
She says control of Venezuela's oil matters because mismanagement of oil revenues drove the country's collapse.

INSIGHT

Legitimacy Will Shape Outcomes

Working with Delcy Rodríguez rather than María Corina Machado complicates assessments of transition legitimacy.
Richard Nephew warns legitimacy will shape international and commercial reactions to any new Venezuelan arrangement.

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Early on January 3, 2026, the United States apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and removed Maduro from power. Maduro was transported to New York, where he now faces federal charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.

The situation in Venezuela remains highly fluid, as does the US policy response. President Trump has signaled a dramatic expansion of US objectives. He has suggested the US will be "running" the country during a transition and is seeking direct access to Venezuela's massive oil reserves.

In Caracas, interim President Delcy Rodríguez condemned the operation but has expressed a willingness to negotiate. Meanwhile, the role of democratic opposition leader María Corina Machado remains unclear.

Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves in the world and these developments raise important questions for global energy markets at a time of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. What's the future of Venezuelan oil? And how might US sanctions and foreign policy decisions reshape energy flows in the region and beyond?

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with three leading experts at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Luisa Palacios, Richard Nephew, and Daniel Sternoff, about the recent events in Venezuela and their wide-ranging implications.

Luisa previously served as chairwoman of Citgo Petroleum Corporation, the US refining arm of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA. Richard formerly was the US deputy special envoy for Iran among several other government roles focused on sanctions and foreign policy. Before joining the Center, Daniel led Energy Aspects' executive briefing service.

The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA is closely following recent US actions in Venezuela and their impact on geopolitics, policy, and global energy markets. Follow us @ColumbiaUEnergy for more insights and updates. See all of our coverage here.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.