The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Ep. 228: Dave Snowden - On How to Make Sense of an Uncertain World

Sep 15, 2024

Dave Snowden, a leading expert in complexity theory, dives into the intricacies of decision-making in uncertain environments. He explains the Cynefin Framework, emphasizing its role in contextualizing complex challenges. Snowden critiques traditional decision-making approaches and advocates for innovative, hypothesis-driven strategies. He also explores the interplay of technology and human judgment, advocating for a balance between the two. Additionally, he discusses the importance of narrative and diverse perspectives in navigating complexity, offering insights that enhance organizational adaptability.

58:57

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Dave Snowden

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Quick takeaways

The Cynefin Framework categorizes decision-making environments into ordered, complex, and chaotic domains, guiding effective strategies for each context.

Narratives play a crucial role in comprehending complexities and fostering collective understanding within organizations to navigate complex challenges.

Human decision-making is enhanced by exaptive innovation, leveraging existing knowledge and skills creatively to address new and complex problems.

Deep dives

Understanding Complexity in Decision-Making

Complexity in decision-making arises when multiple credible hypotheses exist about how to proceed. This situation is common for executives who often face diverse and sensible presentations with limited decision-making time. Instead of trying to choose one approach, allocating small funds for parallel safe-to-fail experiments is advisable. Running these experiments simultaneously allows for environmental adjustments, making potential solutions more visible.

Context is Key: Understand Your System

00:48

Embrace Multiplicity: Best Practices Thrive Within Boundaries

00:49

Seek Balance, Not Extremes

00:42

Embrace the Fluidity of Transition

01:36

Intro

3min

Navigating Uncertainty: The Kenevan Framework

32min

The Evolution of Management: From Informal Networks to Engineering Models

4min

Navigating Uncertainty in Complexity

11min

Navigating VAR: Technology vs. Human Judgement

5min

The Emergence of Creativity and Innovation in Learning Practices

3min

Navigating Culture and AI in an Evolving Market

2min

Today, my guest is Dave Snowden, a leading expert in complexity theory and knowledge management. Dave is the creator of the Cynefin Framework, which is a tool for understanding challenges and helping us make decisions within the right context. His work is international in nature. It covers government and industry, looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He is a popular and passionate keynote speaker on a range of topics, and he's well-known for his pragmatic cynicism - and you will hear that come through as you listen to this episode.

I wish I had come across Dave's work earlier in my career because I think I'd have made some different career choices. In particular, his 2007 Harvard Business Review article with Mary Boone is excellent. It was on the cover of the November edition of the HBR and won the Academy of Management Award for Best Paper of that year.

In this episode, we dive into the nuances of decision-making in complex environments. He walks us through the Cynefin Framework and how it helps us understand the challenges at hand. Dave shares insights into how organizations can avoid the pitfalls of traditional decision-making approaches that often oversimplify complex issues. We also explore the role of narrative in making sense of complexity and how his work with something called SenseMaker, supports capturing and interpreting diverse perspectives. If you're interested in how to navigate complexity and make better decisions in uncertain times, this episode is a must-listen.

Show notes:

Dave Snowden

The Cynefin Framework

Dave and Mary Boone’s 2007 HBR Article, “A Leader’s Framework for Decision-Making”

SenseMaker

Estuarine Mapping

EU Field Guide to Managing Complexity (and Chaos) in Times of Crisis

Wardley Maps - A strategic mapping technique that helps organizations understand and adapt to their competitive landscape.

Gary Klein’s Pre-mortem

Max Boisot’s I-Space

London taxi drivers’ “The Knowledge”

Taylorism