Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a former Google data scientist and author, challenges our reliance on gut instincts in decision-making. He discusses how data provides clearer insights into areas like online dating and parenting, arguing that intuition often leads us astray. The conversation highlights the paradox of happiness, the limitations of self-reported metrics, and how genetics may play a lesser role in child development than community support. Seth emphasizes using data to navigate choices and enhance life satisfaction.
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insights INSIGHT
Data vs. Intuition
Algorithms often outperform human intuition in various decision-making tasks.
This suggests relying on data can lead to better outcomes than relying on gut feelings.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Moneyball for Life
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a baseball enthusiast, notes data analysis revolutionized baseball.
He suggests applying similar data-driven approaches to personal decisions for improved outcomes.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Data-Driven Decisions
Consult data when making major life decisions like starting a business.
For example, consider the average lifespan of different businesses, such as record stores versus dentist offices.
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The book tells the story of the Oakland Athletics' 2002 season, where General Manager Billy Beane and his assistant Paul DePodesta used advanced statistical analysis, known as sabermetrics, to assemble a competitive team despite a limited budget. The approach, pioneered by Bill James, focused on metrics such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage rather than traditional measures like batting average and runs batted in. This data-driven strategy allowed the Athletics to compete with teams having much larger payrolls, like the New York Yankees, and achieve significant success, including a 20-game winning streak and a playoff appearance[2][3][5].
Everybody Lies
Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
In this book, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz argues that while people lie in various social interactions, they are surprisingly honest when searching the internet. He uses big data from Google searches and other online activities to uncover insights into human behavior, including aspects such as racism, sex lives, parental preferences, and the impact of violent media. The book highlights the power and limitations of big data, discussing its potential to reveal deep-seated biases and improve our understanding of human nature, while also warning about its ethical implications and potential for manipulation.
Don't Trust Your Gut
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
In 'Don’t Trust Your Gut,' Seth Stephens-Davidowitz uses extensive datasets to uncover surprising and effective strategies for life’s biggest self-help puzzles. The book reveals how data from sources like dating profiles, tax records, and career trajectories contradict our instincts and offer practical, data-driven advice on topics such as finding a mate, raising children, and achieving career success. It emphasizes the importance of relying on hard facts and figures rather than gut instincts for making smarter decisions.
Dataclysm
Who We Are (When We Think No One's Looking)
Christian Rudder
In 'Dataclysm,' Christian Rudder delves into the world of big data to examine how people behave when they think no one is watching. Using data from OkCupid and other social media platforms, Rudder explores various aspects of human behavior, including interactions based on race, gender, and other demographic factors. The book moves away from narrative storytelling and instead uses statistical analysis and data visualization to understand human behavior on a large scale.
Sean Illing talks with former Google data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of Don't Trust Your Gut. Seth argues that the way we make decisions is wrong, outdated, and based on methods or conventional wisdom that lead us astray from getting what we want. Sean and Seth discuss the idea of using data in place of our own intuition and reason to help us through things like online dating, picking a place to live, and being a better parent. Plus, how can we trust "experience sampling" studies that rely on self-reporting, when — after all — everybody lies?
Host: Sean Illing (@seanilling), Interviews Writer, Vox
The Gray Area with Sean Illing 
