Russia, Ukraine, and Global Instability, With Michael Kimmage
Apr 9, 2024
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History professor Michael Kimmage discusses Russia's war in Ukraine, exploring the conflict's origins, global repercussions, and the complex interactions between Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and Europe. The podcast delves into historical events, security arrangements, NATO membership debates, and the global fallout of the conflict, highlighting Russia's strategic miscalculations and the impact on global security.
Russia exploited Ukraine's power vacuum, annexed Crimea, and incited a secessionist movement in Donbas.
US responses fueled Putin's perception of weakness, driving global instability and consequences for Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Deep dives
Origins of Russia's War in Ukraine
The war began in February 2014 when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled, opening a power vacuum exploited by Russia. Russia's desire to control Ukraine and Ukraine's vulnerability were key causes. Russia quickly annexed Crimea and incited a secessionist movement in the eastern Donbas region. Such events were the immediate fallout of Yanukovych's flight and longstanding Russian ambitions.
European-Russian Contest in Ukraine
European-Russian contest traces back to the failure of Ukrainian President Yanukovych to manage relations with both Europe and Russia. The association agreement offer from Europe triggered a revolution in Ukraine, leading to the conflict. Russia's unhappiness with NATO expansion and Putin's ambitions intertwined in the conflict. Europe sought Ukraine's integration into Western systems, while Russia aimed to control Ukraine's destiny, creating a clash of visions.
Russian-US Collision and Perceptions of Weakness
Perceptions of US weakness, rather than power, influenced Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. Putin's growing contempt for the US led to the invasion, misjudging US resolve. US responses post-2014, including sanctions, further fueled Putin's perception of weakness. The collision encompassed more than NATO expansion, reflecting deeper geopolitical tensions.
Global Instability and Future Implications
The war's global effects include heightened inflation and food insecurity, with implications for politics and security. The war drove Russia closer to Iran and North Korea, emboldening these nations. US and Europe's sustained support for Ukraine is crucial. Lack of support may lead to severe consequences for Ukraine's defense capabilities and geopolitical outcomes.
Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America and a senior associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the origins of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its repercussion for the global order.