What if AI could predict which founders will build billion-dollar companies? Ben Orthlieb, co-founder of Blue Moon, is doing just that, using AI and behavioral science to consistently outperform even the top VC firms. With roots at LinkedIn and Emergence, Ben brings a rigorous, founder-first model to seed investing.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

00:00 Intro to Driving Alpha
00:41 Meet Ben Orthlieb of Blue Moon
01:20 Why “2.12” wasn’t working—and how “Blue Moon” captures their true identity
02:05 The meaning behind both names—and what they signal to founders
03:45 Ben’s origin story: building a new kind of VC from first principles
05:30 Why traditional VC falls short—and how Blue Moon is breaking the mold with AI
10:45 Graduation rates as the ultimate seed-stage performance metric
12:00 How Blue Moon wins deals with small checks and a founder-first approach
20:20 Meet Agatha and Da Vinci: the AI agents powering Blue Moon’s edge
23:05 Strategic collaborations and the expanding Blue Moon network
26:50 What’s next for Blue Moon—and how to engage as a founder, VC, or LP

In this episode,

Ben reveals how Blue Moon evaluates over 9,000 startups a year using their proprietary AI agents, Agatha and Da Vinci, to uncover the top 300 teams with the highest potential. The firm’s two-meeting investment process, rooted in deep founder analysis and cutting-edge tech, allows Blue Moon to move faster and smarter than traditional firms, achieving seed-to-Series A graduation rates nearly 3x higher than the market.

We also explore why the firm rebranded from 2.12 to Blue Moon, the psychology behind founder decision-making, and how their tools give them a near-unfair advantage in sourcing, vetting, and supporting startups. If you’re a founder, VC, or LP curious about the future of venture capital, this conversation is a must-listen.

478. Frame Rate: The Cutting Edge (Feat. Soren Bowie)