The Bonds, the Inflation and the CPI [Eurodollar University, Ep. 150]

Nov 7, 2021

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PART 01: An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted.

PART 02: We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory consumer price shocks due to supply/demand imbalances.

PART 03: What kind of foreign assets do you own PBOC? Well, we are adding a lot of "other" right now. "Other"? Yes, "other". What is that? Don't worry about it. What do you mean, 'Don't worry about it.'? Just know that we're adding it, whatever it is - it's good.

---------SPONSOR----------
Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.

-----SEE EPISODE 150------
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

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----EP. 150 REFERENCES---
The Federal Reserve's Policy Deficit Has Always Been About Money: https://bit.ly/3bJsxFg
Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any of Us Were Born: https://bit.ly/3ENEYfY
China's Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation: https://bit.ly/2ZWb35Q
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins . Podcast intro/outro is "Electro Animal" by Oh the City found at Epidemic Sound.