UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Assessing the data
Sep 30, 2025
In this discussion, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, shares insights on the U.S. economy's surprising resilience, citing strong consumer spending and revised GDP growth figures. He tackles the impact of government shutdown risks, detailing potential economic effects and the negotiation dynamics at play. Draho also explains the recent S&P pullback due to AI financing news and offers strategic investment advice, encouraging buying dips in equities and gold while favoring high-quality fixed income.
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Growth Is More Resilient Than Expected
- GDP revisions and strong consumer spending show the U.S. economy is more resilient than many expected.
- Third-quarter tracking and Atlanta Fed estimates suggest growth likely at least 2.5%, lifting 2024 forecasts slightly.
Growth, Inflation And A Cooling Labor Market
- Strong growth and contained inflation coexist with a cooling labor market, creating a puzzling mix.
- AI-related CapEx and consumer strength help reconcile high GDP with modest payroll gains.
Plan For Headline Risk From A Shutdown
- Expect a possible short government shutdown but know its direct economic impact is usually limited and workers are typically paid retroactively.
- Watch for delayed data releases; prolonged shutdowns could deprive the Fed of inputs and affect rate-cut timing.