Forward Guidance

The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel

50 snips
Jul 9, 2025
Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision, and Julien Bittel, head of macro research at GMI, dive deep into their innovative "Everything Code" framework. They reveal how global debt cycles and liquidity dictate asset prices while highlighting the alarming rate of fiat debasement. The duo examines the societal impact of AI on labor, the evolution of recessions, and the likelihood of escalating liquidity similar to past asset booms. Plus, they explore why tech stocks and cryptocurrencies stand out in today's tumultuous financial landscape.
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INSIGHT

Fiat Debasement and Asset Performance

  • Global debt cycles and liquidity injections cause an 8% annual fiat currency debasement rate.
  • Only tech stocks and crypto outperform this debasement, while gold merely preserves purchasing power.
INSIGHT

Dominant Macro Factor Simplifies Investing

  • The dominant macro factor drives over 97% of NASDAQ price action, simplifying macro investing.
  • Concentrated portfolios in tech and crypto outperform; diversification now destroys returns.
INSIGHT

AI and Economic Singularity Approaching

  • The post-2008 debt cycle mimics 1950s financial repression with debt rollovers and currency debasement.
  • AI and robots threaten to break the GDP growth formula, leading to an economic singularity around 2030.
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