Russian Roulette Hanna Notte on What the Israel-Iran War Means for Russia
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Jun 27, 2025 Hanna Notte, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program, discusses the shifting dynamics in the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for Russia. She reveals how recent hostilities diminish Russia's influence and complicate its Middle Eastern strategy. Notte analyzes the transformations in Russia-Israel relations amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, emphasizing a potential shift toward a pro-Palestinian stance. The conversation also touches on how fluctuating oil prices from these conflicts might impact the Russian economy, highlighting both opportunities and limitations.
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Russia Faces Limitations in Middle East
- Renewed Israel-Iran hostilities reveal Russia's Middle East limitations and expose Iran's weakness.
- Russia benefits little and faces an undesirable situation with diminished leverage and regional instability.
Russia-Israel Complex Relations
- Russia maintains complex ties with Israel balancing diplomacy, diaspora, and military deconfliction.
- Relations cooled post-Ukraine invasion, but Israel prefers Russia's presence in Syria over Turkish dominance.
Russia's Balanced Yet Concerned Approach
- Russia critiques US and Israeli strikes rhetorically but avoids deep anti-Israel rhetoric now, recognizing Israeli strength.
- Moscow fears Iranian instability harming regional balance and worries about broader consequences on South Caucasus.