Alpha Exchange

Ben Hunt, Co-Founder, CIO and President, Perscient

13 snips
Aug 13, 2025
Ben Hunt, co-founder and CIO of Perscient, believes that the stories we tell shape our behavior more than we realize. With a unique outsider's perspective, he forewarned of flaws in mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 crisis. Hunt discusses how narratives illuminate risks that models miss and the role of AI in mapping market influences. He also reflects on inflation, tech stock correlations, and the potential for wage inflation, emphasizing the importance of now casting to inform investment strategies in real time.
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ANECDOTE

Outsider Perspective Led To Early Warning

  • Ben Hunt left academia and built a software company before entering markets, which gave him an outsider's perspective.
  • That outsider view let him spot fatal narrative flaws in mortgage-backed securities before 2008.
INSIGHT

Structure Exists In The Error Term

  • Epsilon Theory tracks the structured "epsilon" error term in models which contains predictable human-driven patterns.
  • Measuring narrative structure reveals behavioral signals that traditional factor models miss.
INSIGHT

Narratives Build Market Edifices

  • Large storytelling institutions create and reinforce market narratives that shape investor behavior.
  • Being outside the dominant narrative sometimes reveals core assumptions others accept uncritically.
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