Non-aligned countries challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system by exploring invoicing of commodities in alternative currencies
Opportunity for big banks to free up balance sheet capacity if FX market making and credit provisioning functions shift to central banks' balance sheets
Absorbing credit losses in non-bank institutions could provide stability and protect the overall financial system while banks pivot to supporting central bank-led market making
Deep dives
Zoltan Posar returns to discuss his new macroeconomic consultancy, Exuno Pluris
In this episode, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal welcome back Zoltan Posar, former strategist at Credit Suisse, to discuss his new macroeconomic consultancy, Exuno Pluris. Posar explains that Exuno Pluris will provide research to institutional investors and consulting on plumbing, particularly the anticipation of moments when prices fall apart in funding and rates markets. He also discusses the concept of Breton Woods 3, a shift away from the USD-dominated global financial system, and how developments such as central bank digital currencies and the invoicing of commodities in different currencies are challenging the current order. Posar predicts a monetary divorce and a reimagining of the global financial system over the next five to ten years. He also explores the potential impacts on treasuries, the banking system, and the rise of gold as a theme. Finally, Posar addresses current banking concerns, such as the recent banking "drama," the potential for further consolidation in the banking system, and the role of shadow banking in absorbing credit losses.
The role of non-aligned countries in global finance
According to Zoltan Posar, the non-aligned countries, particularly ones who don't align themselves with the US, play a significant role in the evolution of the global financial system. He notes that as these countries gain wealth and assert their economic sovereignty, they are challenging the dominance of the US dollar and exploring alternatives, such as the invoicing of commodities in other currencies like Renminbi. Posar believes that their actions, when collectively added up, will have meaningful effects on rates and funding markets.
The potential for central banks to provide balance sheets for marketmaking functions
Zoltan Posar suggests that as FX market making and credit provisioning functions shift to central banks' balance sheets, it could present an opportunity for large banks to free up balance sheet capacity for other activities. Posar believes that if global trade, especially the invoicing of commodities, moves away from the US dollar, the big banks with market-making capabilities in those areas may find balance sheet support from central banks. This shift could also lead to a new form of shadow banking, with central banks acting as correspondents for other central banks in a centralized and controlled financial system.
Concerns about exposure to non-bank lenders and shadow banking activities
While Zoltan Posar acknowledges that there may be concerns about shifting credit activities to non-bank lenders, he believes that it is better to absorb credit losses in non-banks rather than in banks. He suggests that credit losses in non-banks, such as private equity firms or non-traditional lenders, would be more manageable and less detrimental to the overall financial system. Posar notes that as credit and commercial real estate undergo potential reckonings, allowing non-bank institutions to shoulder some of these losses while banks maintain capital strength and pivots to supporting central bank-led market making could provide stability in the face of dislocations.
Addressing recent banking challenges and the potential for future disruptions
Zoltan Posar discusses the recent banking challenges, such as SBB, First Republic, and Wells Fargo, and highlights the resilience of the banking system compared to the 2008 financial crisis. He notes that while there are still potential credit and commercial real estate issues ahead, there are various tools available, such as the Bank Premise Facility Program, FDIC intervention, and capital buffers, to address these issues. Posar emphasizes that micro-dislocations will continue to arise, but the anticipated and appropriate actions from regulators, including consolidations and balance sheet support, should help maintain stability.
Zoltan Pozsar has built a reputation for covering the intricacies of money markets. For the past eight years, he published those insights as a strategist at Credit Suisse. But in this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Pozsar reveals his next career move following his departure from the Swiss bank earlier this year. He also gives us an update on his Bretton Woods III thesis, or the idea that the global financial system is going through a "monetary divorce" from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar. He also gives us his take on the recent banking crisis and what it means for global funding markets going forward.