Inside the Strategy Room 269. Strategy under geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty
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Sep 18, 2025 Matt Watters, a leader in geopolitics and strategy at McKinsey, and Ezra Greenberg, a partner advising on macroeconomic trends, delve into navigating today’s uncertainties. They discuss how geopolitical shifts, trade volatility, and export controls impact strategic decisions. The duo emphasizes that waiting for stability isn’t viable; instead, companies must make bold moves. Practical strategies like scenario planning and competitive war-gaming are highlighted, offering executives tools to thrive amidst the chaos.
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Geopolitics As Structural Dislocation
- Geopolitics is causing a structural dislocation across industries via tariffs, industrial policy, and expanded regulations.
- These government actions are reshaping trade, investment, and competitive dynamics globally.
Tariffs Trigger Wide Market Ripples
- Tariff changes are the largest in a century and they increase input costs and create macro uncertainty.
- They trigger trade- flow shifts, supply-chain knock-on effects, and varied domestic policy responses.
Model Incentives Before Committing
- Track subsidies and industrial incentives in target countries and model their financial impact on investments.
- Evaluate qualification strings, stay requirements, and export-control consequences before accepting incentives.