Upside #48 - Defence The Only Game In Town? Are We Peak LLM? WFH Killing Me Softly...

Jul 12, 2025

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Upside for the real news behind the headlines affecting European Venture.

This week: Is defence the only game in town? Any moral lines? Has Germany nailed its return to growth? OpenAI at peak LLM? Search engine wars are back! Does WFH kill culture, a tariff check in (already out of date!), EU fines and big tech - will we get the good sh*t?

00:00 – Welcome & Rundown

Dan, Mads & Lomax set the scene: Europe’s defence startup boom, OpenAI’s new browser play, WFH vs. culture, Trump’s ever-shifting tariffs, UK H1 VC stats, and Big Tech vs. EU regulators.

04:21 – Euro uplift

€6.5b in June FundingEurope’s tech raises hit €6.5 billion across 323 deals; UK led with 30% (€1.95B) but dipped 18% MoM, while Germany surged past the UK on deep-tech, quantum, energy robotics & aerospace.

05:40 – Defence vs. Resilience vs.

Dual-UseWhat’s the difference? Defence = pure military; resilience = protecting society (cyber-security→critical infrastructure); dual-use = tech with both civilian & military applications.

07:41 – German Market on Fire

DAX +22% YTD: Industrials up 30% (Rheinmetall, Airbus), Financials +16% on easing rates, Tech +14% via AI plays (SAP) & EV chip leader Infineon - autos and pharma lags.

08:46 – Founder Caution in Defence

Budgets may double to €1 trillion, but only ~5–10% goes to R&D, procurement is slow, buyers are few & timelines clash - “proceed with caution” is the advice.

10:56 – Defence Moral Debate

Is it OK to back companies making weapons? Europe’s “sleepy time under US umbrella” ends do we agree protecting citizens and way of life is a moral imperative?

17:03 – OpenAI’s Browser Bet

With 3b Chrome users feeding Google $200 B/yr in search ad profit, OpenAI’s upcoming “AI browser” could unlock ad revenue ($1B ’26; $25B ’29) by capturing click & intent data.

19:16 – Search Engine Wars Are Back AGAIN

Beyond ChatGPT: Grok 4 (hooked to X), Perplexity’s Comet, and generative SEO shake up distribution—from keyword tags to “GEO” (Generative Engine Optimisation).

31:28 – Does WFH Kill Culture?

Values ≠ behaviours: true culture is “expected actions.” Zoom can’t replace serendipity, mentoring & rapid knowledge-share that happen when teams sit shoulder-to-shoulder.

40:59 – Trump’s Tariff Tracker

“90 deals in 90 days” fizzled - only UK, Vietnam & China. EU deadline pushed to August; Brazil hit with 50%; US aiming for $300b in tariff revenue.

48:39 – UK H1 VC Snapshot

£8 B raised (AI startups 30%), beats Germany & France combined; 188 unicorns (71 private) worth £230b; Oxford/Cambridge/Cardiff each hit £1b.

56:57 – Will Europe get the good stuff if we keep fining and controlling?

EU vs. Big Tech. Apple appeals €500m App-Store fine; Google races to comply with the DMA (10% global-revenue penalty); EU’s proposed chat back-door sparks mass-surveillance concerns.

58:28 – Deal of the Week:

Eutelsat €1.35 B RaiseFrance & UK gov’ts back a pan-European LEO+GEO satellite operator to rival Starlink - €1.35 B shows Europe’s push for sovereign space resilience.

1:00:43 – Parting Bytes

Andrew’s rooting for “pet-emotion AI” (Purosense AI’s seed round); Mads eyes Nvidia’s Q2 (ASML report on July 16); Lomax plans LP visits - and everyone’s beach-office-envious!