Why Pax Americana is Dying and What Happens if China Attacks Taiwan

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg continue their analysis of the Israel-Gaza war, against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical power, increasing conflicts, and the end of Pax Americana. They also discuss why Noah expects a China-Taiwan conflict, and the possibility of WWIII. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:50) Commentary on the Israel-Hamas war

(03:41) The idea that wars end

(07:34) The US has lost its unipolar moment

(09:12) Should Israel double Gaza’s GDP to prevent violence?

(15:05) Rich and aggressive? 

(19:50) Sponsors: Daffy and NetSuite

(22:02) Collapse of Pax Americana means countries feel safer declaring war

(22:59) Hotspots for conflict: Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo

(25:52) If China attacks Taiwan, what happens

(29:32) How should international companies get ready?

(31:12) Auditing supply chain

(33:50) Recap of the tension between Taiwan and China

(35:14) Strategic Ambiguity

(38:11) Other key players in the Taiwan-China conflict

(47:10) The Europeanization of the Ukraine war

(50:17) We have nukes in Germany

(51:03) Comparing Obama/Trump/Biden policies

(53:37) What we’re actually doing vs the illusion of what we’re doing with Iran

(54:26) How should the government get ready?

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.