Decoding the Maharashtra poll verdict: What changed between June and November 2024?
Nov 28, 2024
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Vinaya Deshpande, Maharashtra Chief of Bureau at The Hindu, breaks down the dramatic electoral shift in Maharashtra from June to November 2024. He explores how the Maha Yuti coalition's hyper-local strategies and financial promises influenced the landslide victory over the Maha Vikas Agadi. The analysis dives into voter perception, Narendra Modi's impact, and internal discord within the MVA. Deshpande also highlights concerns about the electoral process, voter turnout discrepancies, and the implications for future governance in the state.
The Mahayuti alliance's success stemmed from a hyperlocal election strategy, focusing on tailored manifestos and regional issues to engage voters.
The Mahavikas Aghadi's disorganization and failure to communicate effectively contributed to their historic loss and inability to form an opposition.
Deep dives
Mahayuti's Landslide Victory Explained
The Mahayuti alliance achieved a remarkable victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections, claiming 235 out of 288 seats despite earlier predictions suggesting a tight race. The Mahayuti's key component, the BJP, led the charge with 132 seats, significantly outpacing the Mahavikas Aghadi, which suffered a historic loss with no party securing enough votes to form the opposition. This outcome marks a dramatic shift within a mere five months, raising questions about what led to such an unexpected result. Analysts suggest that the Mahayuti's grassroots approach, combined with their emphasis on local issues, played a crucial role in capturing the electorate's attention and support.
Strategic Local Campaigning
Mahayuti's success is attributed to its hyperlocal election strategy, where parties focused on regional issues and created tailored manifestos for different constituencies. For example, the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar, despite a poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections, rebounded with over 40 assembly seats by developing localized messaging. In prominent contests, like the Baramati fight within the Pawar family, these manifestos addressed specific community needs, showing targeted development work and future plans for regional improvement. This attentiveness to local concerns allowed Mahayuti to engage effectively with voters on a personal level.
Weaknesses of the Mahavikas Aghadi
Despite starting with favorable momentum from the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahavikas Aghadi struggled to capitalize on this advantage due to intra-party disorganization and ineffective communication of their narrative. The alliance failed to present a cohesive counter-narrative to the Mahayuti's focus on development, particularly regarding social welfare schemes aimed at vulnerable demographics. As the Mahavikas Aghadi grappled with leadership disputes and coordination difficulties, they appeared detached from the electorate's immediate concerns, which ultimately affected their performance. This disarray allowed Mahayuti to dominate the conversation and voter sentiment.
Disputed Electoral Processes and Future Implications
Following the election results, opposition parties raised serious concerns about the electoral process, particularly regarding sudden surges in voter turnout and discrepancies in reported figures. Complaints about the integrity of the voting count and the role of state agencies have sparked widespread discussion about transparency in the election commission's operations. The emerging narrative suggests that dissatisfaction within the Mahavikas Aghadi may lead to fractures in the alliance, potentially impacting their viability as a political force moving forward. As the Mahayuti prepares to form government, these controversies will likely be pivotal in shaping the political landscape in Maharashtra.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) won 30 out of the 48 seats, while the Maha Yuti could get only 17 seats. But in the just concluded Assembly elections, the Maha Yuti won a landslide, with 235 out of the 288 seats. The Maha Yuti alliance’s main constituent, the BJP alone won 132 seats, with the other two, the (Ajit Pawar-led) NCP and the (Eknath Shinde-led) Shiv Sena garnering 41 and 57 seats respectively.
None of the MVA parties could win enough seats to even qualify for the position of leader of the Opposition – the first time this has happened in six decades. The Shiva Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray) got 20 seats, the Congress won 16, and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) won 10 seats respectively.
So, what changed so dramatically in a matter of five months – from June to November 2024 -- that the Maha Yuti swept the state? How serious are the MVA’s complaints that question a post-5pm voter surge and the data mismatches between votes polled and counted?
Guest: Vinaya Deshpande, The Hindu’s Maharashtra Chief of Bureau.
Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu.
Edited by Jude Francis Weston
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