Exchanges Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move
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Oct 28, 2025 
Daan Struyven, Co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, dives into the dynamic world of commodities. He discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants, revealing the potential price forecasts for Brent crude. Daan highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and shares insights on how investors can gain exposure, emphasizing that it's largely policy-driven. He also addresses the recent pullback in gold prices, attributing it to speculative actions, while advocating for commodities as a crucial portfolio diversifier.
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Potential Large Impact From Russian Oil Sanctions
- Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could remove ~3 million barrels per day, roughly 3% of global supply.
- Goldman Sachs models show a sustained large disruption could raise prices almost $20/barrel in 2026 without OPEC+ fill-in.
Market May Offset Russian Shortfalls
- Spare capacity in Core OPEC and exemptions could limit the real-world impact of sanctions.
- Market reaction so far aligns with fundamentals given inventory builds and a smaller tail risk than earlier this year.
Sanctions Often Prompt Trade Re-Routing
- Trade networks often reorganize after sanctions, allowing flows to continue via non-sanctioned companies.
- We saw similar re-routing after January 2025 US sanctions when Russian flows continued despite restrictions.