The Russia Challenge, With Liana Fix and Thomas Graham (Election 2024, Episode 1)
Sep 17, 2024
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Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at CFR, and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at CFR, delve into the challenges in U.S.-Russia relations amid the Ukraine conflict. They discuss what 'victory' means for Ukraine beyond just military success and the complexities of NATO membership. The conversation highlights the urgent need for a unified Western strategy and examines nuclear dynamics, especially with the looming expiration of the New START Treaty. Their insights are crucial for understanding the geopolitical landscape as the 2024 U.S. election approaches.
Defining Ukraine's 'victory' requires consensus on sovereignty and integrity while lacking a robust Western strategy hampers long-term support.
The evolving Russia-China alignment complicates U.S. foreign policy, necessitating a fresh approach to manage relations with both nations.
Deep dives
The Ukraine Conflict and US Interests
It is considered in the United States' national interest for Ukraine to win its war against Russia. This victory is nuanced, as the definition of 'winning' is complex and varies among experts. Key aspects of this definition include Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and future economic viability. Without a clear consensus on these criteria, there lacks a robust strategy from Western allies to support Ukraine effectively in the long term.
Challenges to NATO Membership for Ukraine
NATO membership for Ukraine is debated as both a potential goal and a complex issue. While some argue it should be a priority for providing security guarantees, others emphasize the impracticalities given Ukraine's current war status. The argument against immediate NATO membership centers on the risk of invoking Article 5, which could escalate the conflict into a broader war. Therefore, alternatives to NATO, focusing on establishing security ties, could serve as a more feasible approach to assist Ukraine in defending against future aggression.
Prospects for Peace Negotiations
The likelihood of reaching any meaningful peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia currently appears slim. Preconditions for such discussions involve a unified and sustained commitment from the West to support Ukraine militarily and economically over an extended period. President Putin's perception of strength and the ongoing military advantages complicate his willingness to negotiate. To shift the dynamics favorably for negotiations, the West must clearly demonstrate their long-term commitment to Ukraine's defense and stability.
The Future of US-Russian Relations
The strategic alignment between Russia and China raises concerns for the United States and its allies. There is a challenge in managing this emergent axis of autocratic powers while still addressing the underlying complexities of US-Russian relations. A key factor in rethinking these relationships lies in recognizing the interconnectedness of US policy responses towards both China and Russia. Future US administrations will need to navigate this complex landscape while seeking opportunities to foster stability, avoid direct military confrontation, and potentially create incentives for either nation to recalibrate their alliance.
Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at CFR, and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the future of U.S. policy toward Russia and the risks posed by heightened tensions between two nuclear powers. This episode is the first in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2024 presidential election and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.