Divergence: 2020 in Retrospect, feat. Sucharita Kodali, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester

2017 to 2020, Sucharita the Soothsayer

• In 2017, on FC Ep 2432041, Sucharita said “In the future, brands should be thinking about how they can become marketplaces,” which has come to be true in eCommerce today.
• In 2020, Sucharita says that divergence is the broad theme of the year: divergence in political thought, essential businesses vs. nonessential businesses, employed vs unemployed, etc.
• There will be recovery for businesses affected by this divergence, but it might be a longer recovery than what’s ideal.

Retail in 2021: Efficiency vs. Tradition

• Retail was hit the hardest in 2020. Merchants had to pivot their businesses drastically in order to keep up because of the pandemic: curbside pickup, inventory visibility across channels, etc.
• “[This] showed the possibility of how fast things can move when [businesses] set their mind to it and everyone’s aligned.” - Sucharita Kodali
• Sucharita worries that retail businesses will see this from a different perspective. Instead of seeing the opportunity of quickly changing direction and focus, they’ll see 2020 as a dodged bullet and go back to business as usual (slow decision making, hesitance in change and exploring possibilities) in 2021.
• CIO and CDO positions in organizations were prioritized this year because that’s where innovation was required. Sucharita hopes this change will stick, allowing businesses to move fast and do things differently.
• Working from home was tied in with these changes—Sucharita suspects that 20% of businesses will stick with this change and 80% will revert to pre-pandemic ways. Sucharita says this 20/80 rule will probably be true with consumer behaviour affected by the pandemic, as well.
• Sucharita says that DIY home improvement retailers, mass merchants, and grocery stores did exceptionally well during the pandemic.
• Restaurants, department stores, and apparel stores have had a decrease in demand during the pandemic. Though they might have a pent-up demand waiting for them once the pandemic ends, Sucharita doesn’t think that pent-up demand will make up for all that was lost.

Shifting Our Public Spaces

• Malls were considered public places, though they were commercial spaces, for the better part of three decades. Because of the pandemic, the commons has moved online and businesses are being affected by their ESG values - environmental, social, governmental.
• For example, Starbucks implemented social distancing before any state or federal government had any action forcing them to do so.
• “Corporations can be ambassadors and capital markets will fund them if they’re doing the right thing that resonates with what the general populace believes is ‘good for society’,” - Phillip Jackson

Retail Roadmap for 2021

• “I can imagine that over time, [we will] start to see more creativity… whether it’s leveraging business development partnerships or thinking more creatively about how they fulfill things, now is the time that these companies have the opportunity to experiment and there is an appetite to try new and different things.” - Sucharita Kodali
• Retailers in the past year have started to invest in advertising and media networks: “They are monetizing their eyeballs, their foot traffic, and they’re looking at themselves as media properties.” - Sucharita Kodali
• Sucharita predicts that we will see a lot of creativity in the physical spaces that were previously occupied by retail.
• Phillip and Brian suspect that outdoor spaces will see creative redirections as well, or we’ll all be wearing personal yurts.

Links

• Find Sucharita Kodali on Twitter or LinkedIn.
• Check out Sucharita’s other appearances on Future Commerce:
• Episode #132: “Tracksmith: Unapologetically Premium”
• Episode #77: “Zucchini in a Cucumber Pile”
• Episode #41: “Technology, for Technology’s Sake”
• Forrester: Ted Schadler’s “The Pandemic Recession Demands a Digital Response”
• Slate: The Post Pandemic Style

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