How should I be positioned? with Jason Thomas (Carlyle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Jul 25, 2024
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Jason Thomas and Jason Draho discuss the US macroeconomic environment, growth outlook, inflation, and Fed rate cuts. They analyze portfolio positioning preferences and explore topics like potential Fed rate cuts, slowing consumption growth, inflation data, and the impact of inflation and interest rates on consumer segments and market performance.
Possible Fed rate cut in September due to economic indicators.
Moderation expected in growth, inflation, and interest rates by UBS CIO.
Discussion on 'Roaring 20s' scenario with higher growth and inflation rates.
Deep dives
Trajectory of the U.S. Economy in the Second Half of the Year
There are signs pointing towards a possible rate cut in September due to slowing consumption, moderate rise in the unemployment rate, and favorable inflation data, which may position the economy for a rate cut to address these factors.
Views on the U.S. Economy and Growth Expectations
The UBS Chief Investment Office projects a moderation in growth, inflation, and rates towards more sustainable levels, expecting growth around 2% and a disinflation trajectory while awaiting further data.
Potential for a 'Roaring 20s' Economic Scenario
Discussions focus on the potential for a scenario resembling the 'Roaring 20s' with higher GDP growth, inflation, and Fed funds rates, powered by increased investment trends, productivity benefits, and AI advancements.
Effect of Tech Sector Performance and Cash Generating Capacity
The performance of tech stocks, based on cash generation and financing burdens, influences market outcomes. Companies demonstrating cash reliability may outperform amidst changing economic conditions with higher rates impacting different sectors and markets.
Impacts on Market Dynamics and Private Equity Activity
Factors like rate volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and geopolitical risks affect market dynamics, influencing M&A activity and investments. A shift towards more resilient production networks and supply chains due to geopolitical risks guides investment decisions, impacting future transactions and strategies.
Jason Thomas rejoins Jason Draho for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at The Carlyle Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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