Lawfare Daily: The Biden Administration’s Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict with Former DAS Andrew Miller
Sep 10, 2024
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Andrew Miller, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs, provides an insider's view on U.S. foreign policy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He discusses how the recent Gaza war reshapes Biden's diplomatic strategy amidst complex international pressures. The conversation highlights challenges in ensuring civilian safety during military operations and the importance of navigating shifts in Israeli politics that could impact U.S. relations and future peace efforts.
The Biden administration's foreign policy has notably shifted focus towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict following the October 7 attacks, prioritizing it over other issues like Ukraine.
The need for improved public diplomacy has arisen as private diplomatic efforts proved insufficient amid escalating tensions and a hardline Israeli government stance.
Concerns about governance in Gaza and rising violence in the West Bank highlight the urgent need for an effective post-conflict strategy and political consensus.
Deep dives
U.S. and Israel's Response to Civilian Protection
Israel's obligations regarding civilian protection have been scrutinized, particularly following recent conflicts. It is acknowledged that aerial targeting practices have seen improvements, but ground operations continue to present significant concerns regarding civilian safety. The conversation highlights the need for Israel to strengthen its commitment to minimizing civilian harm. The complexity of the situation indicates that while improvements are necessary, there are systemic challenges in managing ground forces that may exacerbate civilian casualties.
Impact of October 7th on U.S. Foreign Policy
The October 7th attacks marked a significant turning point in U.S. foreign policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After this event, the Biden administration re-prioritized resources and attention, focusing significantly more on the conflict than on other international issues like Ukraine or China. This shift led to high-level visits and engagements, signifying that the conflict became a top-level concern, disrupting prior priorities. However, this shift also carried the burden of potential trade-offs, as resources diverted to this conflict limited attention to other strategic interests.
Biden Administration's Strategy Evolution
Initially characterized by a desire for private diplomacy, the Biden administration found that this approach was insufficient for the current conflict situation. As the conflict escalated, a need for more public diplomacy and a shift in strategy became apparent, particularly with the Israeli government’s hardline stance. The administration's willingness to publicly criticize the Israeli government indicates a significant change from previous tactics, reflecting the evolving dynamics on the ground. This evolution highlights the challenges the administration faces in navigating a complex political landscape within Israel while addressing regional stability.
Challenges to a Post-Conflict Resolution
Discussions surrounding future governance in Gaza illustrate substantial concerns about the lack of a coherent post-conflict plan. Despite professional-level conversations regarding day-after planning, political leadership remains hesitant, preventing effective implementation. The absence of a clear strategy exacerbates fears that a ceasefire could lead to chaos without a credible transitional plan. This situation emphasizes the urgent need for a collective political will among regional players and the international community to establish a viable framework for governance in Gaza post-conflict.
The Deteriorating West Bank Situation
The status of the West Bank has emerged as an alarming concern, with rising violence and a lack of legitimacy for the Palestinian Authority. As settlement expansion continues and Israeli military presence grows, discontent among Palestinians increases, raising the probability of conflict. This dynamic is worsened by extremist settler violence, which exacerbates tensions and results in a vicious cycle of retaliatory actions. The interconnectedness of Israeli and Palestinian actions highlights the pressing need for a proactive approach to prevent further escalation and foster stability in the region.
For today’s episode, Lawfare General Counsel and Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sat down with Andrew Miller, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress who was, until recently, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.
They discussed how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fit into the Biden administration’s broader foreign policy strategy, how the Oct. 7 massacre and ensuing Gaza war have changed this calculus, and where U.S. policy is likely to go from here.
