Conversations on Strategy Podcast

Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 61 – Antulio J. Echevarria II – Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

6 snips
Sep 30, 2025
Antulio J. Echevarria II, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Army War College and editor of its press, shares his insights on leveraging risk for NATO's extended deterrence. He explores how NATO can increase adversarial costs without elevating its own risks. Echevarria discusses the concept of waging war without actual conflict and critiques NATO's readiness amid unexpected threats. He advocates for a strategic overhaul to enhance deterrence through denial and proxy support, urging a proactive approach in military planning.
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INSIGHT

Target Political Survival Not Just Costs

  • Risk-benefit models target an adversary's political survival rather than just material costs.
  • This focuses deterrence on what the regime values most and shortens the path to meaningful pressure.
INSIGHT

Cost Ceilings Are Regime-Specific

  • Cost ceilings vary greatly between regimes, so raising material costs may not deter an adversary.
  • Understanding an opponent's valuation and tolerance is essential to effective deterrence design.
INSIGHT

Porcupine Defense Raises Political Risk

  • A strategy of denial (porcupining) raises the chance of defeating an aggressor without NATO ground forces.
  • That outcome pressures an autocratic regime by turning strategic failure into a direct threat to its survival.
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